Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Arizona at Arizona State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Arizona State 23–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:46 left): Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to Arizona.
Final
 Arizona Wildcats | 23 |
|---|---|
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Arizona lucky · −37 Arizona State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona wins 6, Arizona State wins 4.
- 1 ARIZ 42 ASU 14
- 2 ARIZ 19 ASU 0
- 3 ARIZ 30 ASU 17
- 4 ARIZ 27 ASU 17
- 5 ARIZ 10 ASU 3
- 6 ARIZ 24 ASU 21
- 7 ARIZ 16 ASU 18
- 8 ARIZ 7 ASU 13
- 9 ARIZ 7 ASU 15
- 10 ARIZ 14 ASU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona wins 63% of them, Arizona State 37%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona by 17+ | 22.6% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Level after regulation | 5.5% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 16.1% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| Arizona State by 17+ | 6.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Salgado-Medina, 45 yds missed · 61% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 42 yds blocked · 66% expected
- J. Gomez, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 47 yds made · 56% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 48 yds missed · 55% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 49 yds made · 53% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 29 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Arizona 3 for 30 yards, Arizona State 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:33 | Delay of Game on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:05 | Face Mask on Arizona State, 15 yards | +4% ARIZ +1.7 pts |
| Q2 3:23 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards | +3% ASU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +10% ARIZ +3.5 pts |
| Q2 0:34 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% ASU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:53 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yards | +3% ARIZ +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Arizona State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 4:06 | M. Salgado-Medina had a 42-yard field goal blockedKicks · 66% expected for him | +8% ASU | ARIZ: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:46 | Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +10% ARIZ | ARIZ: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 12:22 | Arizona State fumbled and Arizona recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARIZ | ASU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 8:32 | M. Salgado-Medina missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 5 of 12 from 45+ before | +6% ASU | ARIZ: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:21 | Arizona converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% ARIZ | ARIZ: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 1:17 | M. Salgado-Medina made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 5 of 13 from 45+ before | +6% ARIZ | ARIZ: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:21 | Arizona State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ASU | ASU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 8:11 | Arizona State fumbled and Arizona recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARIZ | ASU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona 88% · Arizona State 12%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 16
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona 63% · Arizona State 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Arizona · 
Arizona State
More from Week 14 2025
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Cincinnati at TCU TCU 45–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Houston at Baylor HOU 31–24 · replay 52% for the winner
- Colorado at Kansas State KSU 24–14 · replay 69% for the winner
- UCF at BYU BYU 41–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Iowa State at Oklahoma State ISU 20–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texas Tech at West Virginia TTU 49–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner