Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Texas Tech at West Virginia, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat West Virginia 49–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Texas Tech about even · −4 West Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Tech wins 10, West Virginia wins 0.
- 1 TTU 45 WVU 0
- 2 TTU 34 WVU 0
- 3 TTU 30 WVU 0
- 4 TTU 27 WVU 0
- 5 TTU 34 WVU 10
- 6 TTU 29 WVU 7
- 7 TTU 19 WVU 0
- 8 TTU 26 WVU 10
- 9 TTU 35 WVU 23
- 10 TTU 20 WVU 14
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Tech wins 96% of them, West Virginia 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 49.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 70.8% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Texas Tech 6 for 54 yards, West Virginia 7 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:01 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:28 | Illegal Substitution on West Virginia, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:51 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards | 0% TTU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:09 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | 0% TTU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 11:31 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | False Start on Texas Tech, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% WVU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:10 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | 0% TTU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 6:21 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards | 0% TTU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:53 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:53 | Delay of Game on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:33 | Personal Foul on West Virginia, 15 yards | 0% TTU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:02 | Targeting on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% WVU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:55 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% TTU | WVU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:32 | Texas Tech converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:46 | Texas Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:25 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:16 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 4:14 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 3:03 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 1:51 | West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +0% TTU | WVU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Tech 100% · West Virginia 0%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 49
- Luck in points
- 15.7 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 33.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Tech 96% · West Virginia 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Texas Tech · 
West Virginia
More from Week 14 2025
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Cincinnati at TCU TCU 45–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Houston at Baylor HOU 31–24 · replay 52% for the winner
- Arizona at Arizona State ARIZ 23–7 · replay 63% for the winner
- Colorado at Kansas State KSU 24–14 · replay 69% for the winner
- UCF at BYU BYU 41–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Iowa State at Oklahoma State ISU 20–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner