Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Texas Tech Red Raiders: luck and expected wins
Texas Tech is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 6th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Texas Tech wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Abilene Christian | W 33–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Oregon State | W 35–24 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 3 | vs Houston | W 28–26 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 4 | vs Sam Houston | W 49–14 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Texas Tech win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Colorado |  Texas Tech by 14.2 | 81% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Arizona State | Texas Tech by 12.4 | 78% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Cincinnati | Texas Tech by 5.4 | 63% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Arizona | Texas Tech by 9.5 | 72% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs West Virginia | Texas Tech by 17.9 | 86% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Oklahoma State | Texas Tech by 10.8 | 74% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Baylor | Texas Tech by 5.7 | 63% |
| Week 13 · Nov 26 | vs TCU | Texas Tech by 11.2 | 75% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Texas Tech’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.18 | +6.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.04 | +3.7 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Texas Tech takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Oregon State | W 35–24 | 27% | +73 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Houston | W 35–11 | 45% | +55 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Houston | W 28–26 | 73% | +27 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs BYU | W 34–7 | 84% | +16 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Utah | W 34–10 | 87% | +13 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Texas Tech would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Arizona State | L 22–26 | 62% | −62 |
| 2026 CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl | vs Oregon | L 0–23 | 44% | −44 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12–1 | 11.5 | +0.5 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 67–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Kent State | W 62–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Oregon State | W 45–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Utah | W 34–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 6 | @ Houston | W 35–11 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 7 | vs Kansas | W 42–17 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 8 | @ Arizona State | L 22–26 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 9 | vs Oklahoma State | W 42–0 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 10 | @ Kansas State | W 43–20 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 11 | vs BYU | W 29–7 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 12 | vs UCF | W 48–9 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 14 | @ West Virginia | W 49–0 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 15 | vs BYU | W 34–7 | 84% | +16 |
| CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl | vs Oregon | L 0–23 | 44% | −44 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, 
Arizona State, 
Baylor, 
BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, 
Iowa State, 
Kansas, 
Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, 
UCF, 
Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Texas Tech have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.0 wins.
Was Texas Tech lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +1.0 wins of luck, the 6th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Texas Tech’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 3.0 wins, +1.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 12–1 from play worth 11.5 (+0.5).