luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 18, 2026

Houston at Texas Tech, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Texas Tech beat Houston 28–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:36 left): Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to Houston.

Final

Houston Cougars 26
Texas Tech Red Raiders 28

September 18, 2026 · Jones AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Texas Tech −7.5

Luck index +27 Texas Tech lucky · −27 Houston

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Houston wins 3, Texas Tech wins 7.

  1. 1 HOU 45 TTU 24
  2. 2 HOU 31 TTU 21
  3. 3 HOU 34 TTU 31
  4. 4 HOU 14 TTU 17
  5. 5 HOU 28 TTU 33
  6. 6 HOU 34 TTU 42
  7. 7 HOU 27 TTU 38
  8. 8 HOU 16 TTU 31
  9. 9 HOU 30 TTU 52
  10. 10 HOU 13 TTU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Houston wins 27% of them, Texas Tech 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Houston by 17+4.7%
Houston by 9–167.4%
Houston by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.8%
Texas Tech by 1–824.1%
Texas Tech by 9–1619.2%
Texas Tech by 17+29.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Houston: the final margin was Texas Tech by 2, without the luck Texas Tech by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Dimas, 31 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Dimas, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Houston 7 for 60 yards, Texas Tech 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:03 Illegal Snap on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 9:50 Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards +3% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 8:17 Holding on Houston, 10 yards +1% TTU +0.6 pts
Q2 5:39 Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards +2% TTU +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:39 Holding on Houston, 2 yards +1% TTU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:15 Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 0:15 Delay of Game on Houston, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% TTU 0.0 pts
Q3 5:49 False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TTU +0.6 pts
Q3 0:28 Holding on Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TTU +1.9 pts
Q4 12:36 Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% HOU +3.1 pts
Q4 10:46 Block Below the Waist on Houston, 15 yards +6% TTU +1.6 pts

When it happened

Texas Tech’s chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Texas Tech was ahead in it, below while Houston was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:32 Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 0:28 Texas Tech converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% TTU TTU: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:11 Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q3 3:13 Texas Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% TTU TTU: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 1:16 Texas Tech was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +11% HOU TTU: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:28 Holding on Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TTU TTU: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:36 Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q4 0:49 Houston’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% TTU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Houston 24% · Texas Tech 76%

Final margin
Texas Tech by 2
Luck in points
1.8 for Houston
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas Tech by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Houston 27% · Texas Tech 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Houston · Texas Tech

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