luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Arkansas State at TCU, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

TCU beat Arkansas State 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, TCU wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff TCU was an 88% favorite.

Final

Arkansas State Red Wolves 7
TCU Horned Frogs 31

September 19, 2026 · Amon G. Carter Stadium · Closing line: TCU −18.5

Luck index +4 TCU about even · −4 Arkansas State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 0, TCU wins 10.

  1. 1 ARST 5 TCU 10
  2. 2 ARST 10 TCU 19
  3. 3 ARST 6 TCU 20
  4. 4 ARST 7 TCU 24
  5. 5 ARST 14 TCU 34
  6. 6 ARST 10 TCU 33
  7. 7 ARST 3 TCU 28
  8. 8 ARST 0 TCU 31
  9. 9 ARST 6 TCU 42
  10. 10 ARST 0 TCU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arkansas State wins 4% of them, TCU 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arkansas State by 17+0.2%
Arkansas State by 9–160.6%
Arkansas State by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
TCU by 1–88.2%
TCU by 9–1615.6%
TCU by 17+72.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.6 points to TCU: the final margin was TCU by 24, without the luck TCU by 10.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Arkansas State 2 for 10 yards, TCU 2 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards +1% ARST +1.3 pts
Q1 11:12 Holding on TCU, 10 yards +1% ARST +1.1 pts
Q2 12:48 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.9 pts
Q2 7:34 Illegal Formation on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TCU +0.3 pts

When it happened

TCU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while TCU was ahead in it, below while Arkansas State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% ARST ARST: Punt
2 Q1 10:01 TCU converted 4th & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% TCU TCU: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:48 Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedFalse Start on Arkansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% TCU ARST: Punt
4 Q2 9:13 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +1% ARST TCU: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 6:05 TCU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% TCU TCU: Touchdown
6 Q3 14:01 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% TCU TCU: Punt
7 Q3 5:35 TCU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +1% TCU TCU: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:28 TCU converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +2% TCU TCU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arkansas State 4% · TCU 96%

Final margin
TCU by 24
Luck in points
13.6 for TCU
Luck-adjusted margin
TCU by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Arkansas State 4% · TCU 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Arkansas State · TCU

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