luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Miami (OH) at Cincinnati, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 35–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Cincinnati wins 5 of 10.

Cincinnati won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Miami (OH) it would win 84% of the time; with this day’s form, 48%. The numbers

Before kickoff Cincinnati was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:18 left): Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 20, worth 24 points of win probability to Miami (OH).

Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks 31
Cincinnati Bearcats 35

September 19, 2026 · TQL Stadium · Closing line: Cincinnati −14.5

Luck index +52 Cincinnati lucky · −52 Miami (OH)

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 5, Cincinnati wins 5.

  1. 1 M-OH 41 CIN 10
  2. 2 M-OH 28 CIN 10
  3. 3 M-OH 34 CIN 21
  4. 4 M-OH 49 CIN 41
  5. 5 M-OH 35 CIN 31
  6. 6 M-OH 26 CIN 29
  7. 7 M-OH 35 CIN 41
  8. 8 M-OH 28 CIN 39
  9. 9 M-OH 27 CIN 43
  10. 10 M-OH 21 CIN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Cincinnati won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Miami (OH) it would win 84% of the time; with this day’s form, 48%.

36 points apart for Cincinnati: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Miami (OH) offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.04 better by 0.09
Miami (OH) defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.07 worse by 0.18
Cincinnati offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.13 better by 0.12
Cincinnati defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.08 worse by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami (OH) wins 52% of them, Cincinnati 48%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami (OH) by 17+17.6%
Miami (OH) by 9–1614.8%
Miami (OH) by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation1.4%
Cincinnati by 1–818.8%
Cincinnati by 9–1613.5%
Cincinnati by 17+15.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to Miami (OH): the final margin was Cincinnati by 4, without the luck Cincinnati by 9.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Rusnak, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
  • K. McLaughlin, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
  • K. McLaughlin, 19 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. McLaughlin, 45 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Miami (OH) 7 for 57 yards, Cincinnati 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:32 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +1.1 pts
Q1 5:06 Kick Catch Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yards +1% CIN +0.9 pts
Q1 2:59 Offside on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 10:59 Ineligible Downfield on Miami (OH), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% CIN +2.7 pts
Q2 10:37 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 10:23 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q3 14:16 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.5 pts
Q3 12:46 Chop Block on Miami (OH), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% CIN +2.1 pts
Q3 8:10 Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 7 yards +3% CIN +1.3 pts
Q3 2:40 Roughing the Passer on Cincinnati, 15 yards +6% M-OH +1.6 pts
Q4 12:49 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Cincinnati, 15 yards +4% M-OH +1.6 pts

When it happened

Cincinnati’s chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Cincinnati was ahead in it, below while Miami (OH) was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:59 Ineligible Downfield on Miami (OH), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
2 Q4 12:50 Cincinnati fumbled and Miami (OH) recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% M-OH CIN: Touchdown
3 Q4 10:50 K. McLaughlin missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +6% CIN M-OH: Punt
4 Q4 5:18 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +24% M-OH M-OH: Punt
5 Q4 3:04 Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% M-OH CIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:30 Cincinnati converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +15% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:00 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% M-OH M-OH: Turnover
8 Q4 0:43 Miami (OH) fumbled and Cincinnati recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami (OH) 10% · Cincinnati 90%

Final margin
Cincinnati by 4
Luck in points
5.1 for Miami (OH)
Luck-adjusted margin
Cincinnati by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Miami (OH) 52% · Cincinnati 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Miami (OH) · Cincinnati

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