Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Tulane at Kansas State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat Tulane 31–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas State was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Tulane Green Wave | 20 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Kansas State about even · −12 Tulane
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulane wins 1, Kansas State wins 9.
- 1 TULN 17 KSU 13
- 2 TULN 14 KSU 17
- 3 TULN 14 KSU 20
- 4 TULN 23 KSU 31
- 5 TULN 10 KSU 21
- 6 TULN 3 KSU 17
- 7 TULN 10 KSU 27
- 8 TULN 10 KSU 31
- 9 TULN 3 KSU 30
- 10 TULN 14 KSU 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulane wins 12% of them, Kansas State 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulane by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 7.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 44.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rodriguez, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Helmke, 58 yds made · 41% expected
- C. Helmke, 53 yds made · 49% expected
Penalties: Tulane 5 for 24 yards, Kansas State 5 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:39 | False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards | +2% TULN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:03 | False Start on Kansas State, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:29 | Illegal Formation on Tulane, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% KSU +2.3 pts |
| Q3 5:19 | Personal Foul on Kansas State, 15 yards | +1% TULN +1.8 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:21 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:22 | Intentional Grounding on Tulane, 4 yards | 0% KSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 5:48 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards | 0% TULN +3.5 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | Delay of Game on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KSU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:57 | Tulane converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:54 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% KSU | KSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:03 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TULN | TULN: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:23 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% KSU | TULN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:03 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 11:31 | Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% TULN | KSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 7:45 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 3:50 | Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +2% KSU | TULN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulane 2% · Kansas State 98%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 11
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 13.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulane 12% · Kansas State 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Tulane · 
Kansas State
More from Week 3 2026
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Houston at Texas Tech TTU 28–26 · replay 73% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner