luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 college football season · after Week 4

Expected wins, 2026: what each team’s play was worth

South Florida has won 4 games so far; replayed with the way both teams played, its play was worth 2.4, the most luck in FBS. Georgia Tech is the other way round: 1 win from play worth 2.9.

Replay wins are what college fans call second-order wins: each game’s postgame win expectancy, added up. Records further ahead of them are the ones that tend to come back to earth.

#TeamConferenceRecordReplay winsCoin-flip winsPythagoreanBetting lineWins − replay
1UtahBig 12 4–03.94.0 3.93.4+0.1
2GeorgiaSEC 4–03.94.0 3.83.7+0.1
3IndianaBig Ten 4–03.84.0 3.93.9+0.2
4MiamiACC 4–03.84.0 3.93.8+0.2
5Notre DameIndependent 4–03.74.0 3.93.8+0.3
6AlabamaSEC 4–03.74.0 3.53.4+0.3
7Mississippi StateSEC 4–03.73.6 3.32.5+0.3
8USCBig Ten 4–13.74.0 3.64.2+0.3
9FloridaSEC 4–03.73.9 3.53.1+0.3
10Ohio StateBig Ten 3–13.73.7 3.83.4−0.7
11MassachusettsMAC 4–03.73.9 3.72.6+0.3
12PittsburghACC 4–03.43.8 3.93.3+0.6
13Jacksonville StateConference USA 3–23.43.3 3.13.0−0.4
14NebraskaBig Ten 4–03.44.0 3.83.5+0.6
15ToledoMAC 3–13.43.9 3.02.4−0.4
16LSUSEC 3–13.33.2 3.63.0−0.3
17UCLABig Ten 4–03.33.9 3.52.7+0.7
18SMUACC 3–13.32.5 2.93.0−0.3
19Virginia TechACC 4–03.23.8 3.63.3+0.8
20MemphisAmerican 3–13.22.6 2.62.4−0.2
21James MadisonSun Belt 4–03.23.7 3.82.7+0.8
22MichiganBig Ten 3–13.23.0 3.12.9−0.2
23DukeACC 4–03.23.3 3.72.8+0.8
24CincinnatiBig 12 4–03.23.4 3.32.8+0.8
25HoustonBig 12 3–13.13.2 3.43.1−0.1
26TexasSEC 4–03.12.9 3.63.1+0.9
27Kansas StateBig 12 3–13.03.1 3.63.40.0
28Oklahoma StateBig 12 3–13.02.7 3.22.30.0
29VirginiaACC 3–13.03.1 3.73.30.0
30Texas TechBig 12 4–03.03.5 3.33.6+1.0
31New MexicoMountain West 3–13.03.1 3.82.60.0
32UCFBig 12 3–13.03.1 3.52.60.0
33North Dakota StateMountain West 4–03.03.6 3.73.2+1.0
34WisconsinBig Ten 3–12.92.8 3.02.3+0.1
35Florida InternationalConference USA 2–22.92.8 2.52.2−0.9
36WashingtonBig Ten 3–12.92.9 3.03.7+0.1
37IowaBig Ten 4–02.93.3 3.83.2+1.1
38Georgia TechACC 1–32.92.3 2.12.4−1.9
39MissouriSEC 3–12.83.3 3.13.0+0.2
40Oregon StatePac-12 2–22.82.3 2.71.8−0.8
41BaylorBig 12 3–12.83.0 3.52.9+0.2
42BYUBig 12 3–02.82.9 2.72.5+0.2
43KentuckySEC 3–12.83.0 2.72.2+0.2
44VanderbiltSEC 3–12.83.1 2.62.7+0.2
45ArizonaBig 12 3–12.82.7 3.13.1+0.2
46AuburnSEC 3–12.72.3 2.82.8+0.3
47LouisvilleACC 2–22.72.3 2.82.7−0.7
48Penn StateBig Ten 3–12.73.2 3.73.6+0.3
49IllinoisBig Ten 2–22.72.4 2.52.6−0.7
50LibertyConference USA 3–12.73.3 3.02.7+0.3
51Texas StatePac-12 2–22.72.3 2.22.1−0.7
52MarylandBig Ten 2–22.72.1 2.52.6−0.7
53LouisianaSun Belt 3–12.72.6 3.02.3+0.3
54App StateSun Belt 3–12.72.2 2.92.3+0.3
55Georgia StateSun Belt 3–12.63.0 3.22.1+0.4
56RutgersBig Ten 1–32.61.4 2.42.5−1.6
57Boise StatePac-12 3–12.53.0 3.02.5+0.5
58TennesseeSEC 3–12.53.4 3.63.1+0.5
59OklahomaSEC 2–22.52.4 2.72.8−0.5
60OregonBig Ten 3–12.53.1 3.33.5+0.5
61TempleAmerican 1–32.52.0 2.01.7−1.5
62South FloridaAmerican 4–02.42.7 3.43.1+1.6
63TCUBig 12 2–22.42.2 3.53.2−0.4
64West VirginiaBig 12 3–12.42.4 2.82.7+0.6
65MinnesotaBig Ten 3–12.42.8 3.22.6+0.6
66Middle TennesseeConference USA 2–22.42.3 2.41.9−0.4
67Miami (OH)MAC 2–22.41.8 1.81.9−0.4
68Eastern MichiganMAC 2–32.32.5 1.52.4−0.3
69UConnIndependent 2–22.32.3 2.92.2−0.3
70Ole MissSEC 3–12.32.6 2.32.5+0.7
71South CarolinaSEC 2–22.32.0 2.92.8−0.3
72Air ForceMountain West 2–12.32.0 2.12.1−0.3
73Iowa StateBig 12 2–22.32.2 3.32.4−0.3
74NevadaMountain West 1–32.21.7 2.31.8−1.2
75UTSAAmerican 3–12.22.6 2.42.3+0.8
76Utah StatePac-12 1–32.21.5 0.91.5−1.2
77Sam HoustonConference USA 1–32.21.6 2.31.3−1.2
78East CarolinaAmerican 2–22.22.6 1.92.1−0.2
79North TexasAmerican 2–22.22.0 2.61.8−0.2
80Wake ForestACC 3–12.12.1 2.31.8+0.9
81TulsaAmerican 3–12.12.9 2.92.3+0.9
82Florida StateACC 2–22.12.6 2.52.5−0.1
83ClemsonACC 3–12.12.0 1.92.3+0.9
84Fresno StatePac-12 3–12.12.6 2.82.3+0.9
85North CarolinaACC 2–12.02.2 2.31.70.0
86RiceAmerican 1–32.01.9 1.01.4−1.0
87KansasBig 12 1–22.01.3 1.91.8−1.0
88ArkansasSEC 2–22.01.8 1.61.90.0
89Michigan StateBig Ten 2–22.01.1 2.12.00.0
90DelawareConference USA 2–22.02.0 1.91.80.0
91San José StateMountain West 2–22.01.7 1.61.80.0
92SyracuseACC 1–21.91.1 2.41.8−0.9
93Coastal CarolinaSun Belt 1–31.91.6 2.11.9−0.9
94Kent StateMAC 2–21.91.9 0.61.3+0.1
95Florida AtlanticAmerican 3–11.92.4 1.91.8+1.1
96TroySun Belt 2–21.81.7 2.02.2+0.2
97Kennesaw StateConference USA 1–31.81.6 1.92.0−0.8
98UNLVMountain West 2–21.82.4 2.02.6+0.2
99NavyAmerican 1–21.81.8 1.82.3−0.8
100Missouri StateConference USA 1–31.81.9 1.41.3−0.8
101NC StateACC 2–21.81.7 2.92.6+0.2
102New Mexico StateConference USA 1–31.81.0 1.71.5−0.8
103Colorado StatePac-12 2–21.82.0 2.41.8+0.2
104Central MichiganMAC 2–21.71.9 0.51.6+0.3
105ArmyAmerican 2–11.71.4 2.62.2+0.3
106OhioMAC 2–21.71.9 1.91.9+0.3
107NorthwesternBig Ten 2–11.72.0 2.41.5+0.3
108ColoradoBig 12 2–21.71.4 1.72.0+0.3
109Arkansas StateSun Belt 2–21.71.5 2.12.0+0.3
110Georgia SouthernSun Belt 1–31.71.3 2.01.6−0.7
111Texas A&MSEC 2–21.72.0 2.83.0+0.3
112Arizona StateBig 12 2–11.61.7 2.21.8+0.4
113Boston CollegeACC 2–21.62.0 1.72.1+0.4
114San Diego StatePac-12 1–31.61.0 1.52.2−0.6
115StanfordACC 2–21.61.7 1.01.4+0.4
116PurdueBig Ten 1–31.61.9 1.51.7−0.6
117Old DominionSun Belt 1–31.61.2 1.32.0−0.6
118WyomingMountain West 2–21.51.4 1.72.3+0.5
119Western MichiganMAC 2–21.51.2 2.42.0+0.5
120BuffaloMAC 2–21.51.2 1.12.1+0.5
121CaliforniaACC 2–21.52.2 2.22.3+0.5
122Southern MissSun Belt 1–31.51.9 1.61.5−0.5
123MarshallSun Belt 3–11.41.4 1.32.4+1.6
124UABAmerican 2–21.41.6 1.61.4+0.6
125Washington StatePac-12 1–31.41.6 1.81.4−0.4
126AkronMAC 1–31.41.0 1.01.3−0.4
127Sacramento StateMAC 1–41.31.1 1.31.8−0.3
128TulaneAmerican 2–21.31.2 1.52.0+0.7
129UL MonroeSun Belt 0–41.21.0 0.71.3−1.2
130South AlabamaSun Belt 2–21.21.8 2.01.8+0.8
131Northern IllinoisMountain West 0–41.20.7 0.40.8−1.2
132Louisiana TechSun Belt 1–21.21.0 1.91.1−0.2
133CharlotteAmerican 0–41.11.1 0.81.3−1.1
134Ball StateMAC 1–31.01.1 0.61.40.0
135UTEPMountain West 1–31.01.0 0.71.20.0
136Western KentuckyConference USA 1–31.01.0 0.81.50.0
137Hawai'iMountain West 1–30.71.6 1.22.1+0.3
138Bowling GreenMAC 0–40.60.0 0.10.8−0.6
Replay wins
Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed 4,000 times with the way both teams actually played (second-order wins).
Coin-flip wins
The same with only kicks, fumble bounces, conversions and calls re-rolled.
Pythagorean
From points scored and allowed: games × PF2.26 / (PF2.26 + PA2.26).
Betting line
Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

By conference: record against replay wins

Big Ten: Indiana 4–0 (3.8), USC 4–1 (3.7), Ohio State 3–1 (3.7), Nebraska 4–0 (3.4), UCLA 4–0 (3.3), Michigan 3–1 (3.2), Wisconsin 3–1 (2.9), Washington 3–1 (2.9), Iowa 4–0 (2.9), Penn State 3–1 (2.7), Illinois 2–2 (2.7), Maryland 2–2 (2.7), Rutgers 1–3 (2.6), Oregon 3–1 (2.5), Minnesota 3–1 (2.4), Michigan State 2–2 (2.0), Northwestern 2–1 (1.7), Purdue 1–3 (1.6)

ACC: Miami 4–0 (3.8), Pittsburgh 4–0 (3.4), SMU 3–1 (3.3), Virginia Tech 4–0 (3.2), Duke 4–0 (3.2), Virginia 3–1 (3.0), Georgia Tech 1–3 (2.9), Louisville 2–2 (2.7), Wake Forest 3–1 (2.1), Florida State 2–2 (2.1), Clemson 3–1 (2.1), North Carolina 2–1 (2.0), Syracuse 1–2 (1.9), NC State 2–2 (1.8), Boston College 2–2 (1.6), Stanford 2–2 (1.6), California 2–2 (1.5)

Big 12: Utah 4–0 (3.9), Cincinnati 4–0 (3.2), Houston 3–1 (3.1), Kansas State 3–1 (3.0), Oklahoma State 3–1 (3.0), Texas Tech 4–0 (3.0), UCF 3–1 (3.0), Baylor 3–1 (2.8), BYU 3–0 (2.8), Arizona 3–1 (2.8), TCU 2–2 (2.4), West Virginia 3–1 (2.4), Iowa State 2–2 (2.3), Kansas 1–2 (2.0), Colorado 2–2 (1.7), Arizona State 2–1 (1.6)

SEC: Georgia 4–0 (3.9), Alabama 4–0 (3.7), Mississippi State 4–0 (3.7), Florida 4–0 (3.7), LSU 3–1 (3.3), Texas 4–0 (3.1), Missouri 3–1 (2.8), Kentucky 3–1 (2.8), Vanderbilt 3–1 (2.8), Auburn 3–1 (2.7), Tennessee 3–1 (2.5), Oklahoma 2–2 (2.5), Ole Miss 3–1 (2.3), South Carolina 2–2 (2.3), Arkansas 2–2 (2.0), Texas A&M 2–2 (1.7)

American: Memphis 3–1 (3.2), Temple 1–3 (2.5), South Florida 4–0 (2.4), UTSA 3–1 (2.2), East Carolina 2–2 (2.2), North Texas 2–2 (2.2), Tulsa 3–1 (2.1), Rice 1–3 (2.0), Florida Atlantic 3–1 (1.9), Navy 1–2 (1.8), Army 2–1 (1.7), UAB 2–2 (1.4), Tulane 2–2 (1.3), Charlotte 0–4 (1.1)

Sun Belt: James Madison 4–0 (3.2), Louisiana 3–1 (2.7), App State 3–1 (2.7), Georgia State 3–1 (2.6), Coastal Carolina 1–3 (1.9), Troy 2–2 (1.8), Arkansas State 2–2 (1.7), Georgia Southern 1–3 (1.7), Old Dominion 1–3 (1.6), Southern Miss 1–3 (1.5), Marshall 3–1 (1.4), UL Monroe 0–4 (1.2), South Alabama 2–2 (1.2), Louisiana Tech 1–2 (1.2)

MAC: Massachusetts 4–0 (3.7), Toledo 3–1 (3.4), Miami (OH) 2–2 (2.4), Eastern Michigan 2–3 (2.3), Kent State 2–2 (1.9), Central Michigan 2–2 (1.7), Ohio 2–2 (1.7), Western Michigan 2–2 (1.5), Buffalo 2–2 (1.5), Akron 1–3 (1.4), Sacramento State 1–4 (1.3), Ball State 1–3 (1.0), Bowling Green 0–4 (0.6)

Conference USA: Jacksonville State 3–2 (3.4), Florida International 2–2 (2.9), Liberty 3–1 (2.7), Middle Tennessee 2–2 (2.4), Sam Houston 1–3 (2.2), Delaware 2–2 (2.0), Kennesaw State 1–3 (1.8), Missouri State 1–3 (1.8), New Mexico State 1–3 (1.8), Western Kentucky 1–3 (1.0)

Mountain West: New Mexico 3–1 (3.0), North Dakota State 4–0 (3.0), Air Force 2–1 (2.3), Nevada 1–3 (2.2), San José State 2–2 (2.0), UNLV 2–2 (1.8), Wyoming 2–2 (1.5), Northern Illinois 0–4 (1.2), UTEP 1–3 (1.0), Hawai'i 1–3 (0.7)

Pac-12: Oregon State 2–2 (2.8), Texas State 2–2 (2.7), Boise State 3–1 (2.5), Utah State 1–3 (2.2), Fresno State 3–1 (2.1), Colorado State 2–2 (1.8), San Diego State 1–3 (1.6), Washington State 1–3 (1.4)

Independent: Notre Dame 4–0 (3.7), UConn 2–2 (2.3)

Questions

What are second-order wins?

The wins a team’s play was worth, game by game, rather than the wins on its record: Bill Connelly’s name for summed postgame win expectancy. Ours replays each game 4,000 times from both teams’ own plays, with kicks, fumble bounces and conversions at their expected rates, and adds up how often each team wins.

Which college football team has been luckiest in 2026?

South Florida Bulls so far: 4–0 from play worth 2.4 wins (+1.6). The unluckiest: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 1–3 from play worth 2.9.

What are Pythagorean wins in college football?

Expected wins from points scored and allowed alone: games × PF^2.26 / (PF^2.26 + PA^2.26), with the exponent fitted to FBS games. It ignores how the points came, so blowouts of weak teams inflate it; the replay looks at every play instead.

2026 luck rankings · One-score games · Turnover luck · Power rankings · Methodology