Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress
New Mexico Lobos: luck and expected wins
New Mexico is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 63rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often New Mexico wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Central Michigan | W 38–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | vs Mercyhurst | W 70–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Oklahoma | L 6–14 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 4 | @ New Mexico State | W 42–18 | 95% | +6 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | New Mexico win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs UTEP |  New Mexico by 28.4 | 96% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Hawai'i | New Mexico by 14.4 | 81% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs North Dakota State | New Mexico by 2.9 | 57% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at San José State | New Mexico by 14.3 | 81% |
| Week 10 · Nov 6 | at Nevada | New Mexico by 11.8 | 76% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs UNLV | New Mexico by 9.9 | 72% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Wyoming | New Mexico by 16.6 | 84% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Air Force | New Mexico by 13.7 | 79% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in New Mexico’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.03 | +6.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins New Mexico takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | vs San Diego State | W 23–17 | 26% | +74 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Nevada | W 24–22 | 58% | +42 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Colorado State | W 20–17 | 59% | +41 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ UNLV | W 40–35 | 70% | +30 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Utah State | W 33–14 | 77% | +23 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses New Mexico would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 6 | @ San José State | L 28–35 | 33% | −33 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Boise State | L 25–41 | 11% | −11 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Michigan | L 17–34 | 7% | −7 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Oklahoma | L 6–14 | 4% | −4 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–3 | 7.0 | +2.0 | 4–1 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Michigan | L 17–34 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 2 | vs Idaho State | W 32–22 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 3 | @ UCLA | W 35–10 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 5 | vs New Mexico State | W 38–20 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 6 | @ San José State | L 28–35 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 7 | @ Boise State | L 25–41 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 8 | vs Nevada | W 24–22 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 9 | vs Utah State | W 33–14 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 10 | @ UNLV | W 40–35 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 12 | vs Colorado State | W 20–17 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 13 | @ Air Force | W 20–3 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | vs San Diego State | W 23–17 | 26% | +74 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Mountain West teams by luck
- Mountain West:
Air Force, 
Hawai'i, 
Nevada, 
North Dakota State, 
Northern Illinois, 
San José State, 
UNLV, 
UTEP, 
Wyoming
How many wins does New Mexico have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.0 wins.
Was New Mexico lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: 0.0 wins of luck, the 63rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was New Mexico’s luckiest season?
2025: 9–3 from play worth 7.0 wins, +2.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 3.0 (0.0).