Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
New Mexico State at New Mexico, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico beat New Mexico State 38–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico wins 10 of 10. New Mexico State had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 20 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Before kickoff New Mexico was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:18 left): Return touchdown by New Mexico State, worth 27 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Final
 New Mexico State Aggies | 20 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico Lobos | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 New Mexico about even · −3 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 0, New Mexico wins 10.
- 1 NMSU 17 UNM 20
- 2 NMSU 20 UNM 30
- 3 NMSU 3 UNM 17
- 4 NMSU 0 UNM 17
- 5 NMSU 0 UNM 20
- 6 NMSU 10 UNM 33
- 7 NMSU 7 UNM 34
- 8 NMSU 14 UNM 45
- 9 NMSU 16 UNM 52
- 10 NMSU 0 UNM 43
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico State wins 3% of them, New Mexico 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 10.3% |
| New Mexico by 17+ | 80.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Hawk, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- R. Hawk, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 44 yds made · 63% expected
- R. Hawk, 39 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: New Mexico State 7 for 64 yards, New Mexico 10 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:36 | Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 13:16 | Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:12 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +1.0 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico, 2 yards | +1% NMSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:21 | Delay of Game on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:15 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 9 yards | +10% UNM +4.0 pts |
| Q3 8:36 | Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NMSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:37 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +2% UNM +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% NMSU +4.0 pts |
| Q3 6:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on New Mexico, 15 yards | +7% NMSU +2.3 pts |
| Q3 3:58 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNM +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico, 5 yards | 0% UNM +0.1 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:36 | Personal Foul on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +1% UNM +2.2 pts |
| Q4 5:39 | Illegal Substitution on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico State, 15 yards | 0% UNM +0.5 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:18 | New Mexico fumbled and New Mexico State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by New Mexico StateSpecial teams | +27% NMSU | UNM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:32 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:37 | New Mexico was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +6% NMSU | UNM: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 11:27 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +10% UNM | UNM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 9:00 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 7:44 | New Mexico State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% UNM | NMSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 6:41 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on New Mexico, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico State 0% · New Mexico 100%
- Final margin
- New Mexico by 18
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico by 22.8
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico State 3% · New Mexico 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
New Mexico State · 
New Mexico
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