Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
San José State at Stanford, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Stanford beat San José State 30–29, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Stanford wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Stanford was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): San José State fumbled and recovered it, worth 40 points of win probability to San José State.
Final
 San José State Spartans | 29 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Stanford lucky · −57 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San José State wins 6, Stanford wins 4.
- 1 SJSU 49 STAN 17
- 2 SJSU 40 STAN 17
- 3 SJSU 34 STAN 17
- 4 SJSU 29 STAN 17
- 5 SJSU 42 STAN 35
- 6 SJSU 37 STAN 34
- 7 SJSU 24 STAN 27
- 8 SJSU 17 STAN 24
- 9 SJSU 21 STAN 34
- 10 SJSU 21 STAN 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San José State wins 57% of them, Stanford 43%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Stanford by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San José State by 17+ | 22.2% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 11.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 41 yds made · 68% expected
- D. Lynch, 36 yds made · 77% expected
- D. Lynch, 28 yds missed · 87% expected
- D. Lynch, 29 yds missed · 85% expected
- D. Lynch, 31 yds made · 82% expected
- E. Kenney, 36 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: San José State 7 for 44 yards, Stanford 9 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:48 | Illegal Use of Hands on Stanford, 10 yards | +3% SJSU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 12:08 | Illegal Substitution on San José State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% STAN +2.5 pts |
| Q1 11:46 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SJSU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 10:47 | Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:06 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yards | +2% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:31 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:40 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yards | +2% SJSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:33 | Pass Interference on San José State, 13 yards | +2% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:29 | Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SJSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:29 | Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:19 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SJSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:55 | Delay of Game on San José State, 6 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:59 | D. Lynch missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +8% STAN | SJSU: End of half |
| 2 | Q3 12:06 | San José State was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% STAN | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 10:22 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +5% SJSU | STAN: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 7:17 | San José State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% SJSU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 5:59 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on Stanford, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% SJSU | STAN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:12 | Stanford converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +13% STAN | STAN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:19 | Stanford’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +22% SJSU | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | San José State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +40% SJSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San José State 50% · Stanford 50%
- Final margin
- Stanford by 1
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for Stanford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stanford by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- San José State 57% · Stanford 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
San José State · 
Stanford
More from Week 5 2025
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at NC State VT 23–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Washington State at Colorado State WSU 20–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Florida State at Virginia UVA 46–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Duke at Syracuse DUKE 38–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- New Mexico State at New Mexico UNM 38–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at Boise State BOIS 47–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner