Week 5 2025 · September 26, 2025
Florida State at Virginia, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat Florida State 46–38, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Florida State: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Virginia it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:36 left): Florida State converted 4th & 11, worth 29 points of win probability to Florida State.
Final (OT)
 Florida State Seminoles | 38 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Cavaliers | 46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Virginia about even · −22 Florida State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida State wins 2, Virginia wins 8.
- 1 FSU 41 UVA 24
- 2 FSU 28 UVA 23
- 3 FSU 21 UVA 24
- 4 FSU 49 UVA 55
- 5 FSU 24 UVA 33
- 6 FSU 31 UVA 42
- 7 FSU 26 UVA 42
- 8 FSU 31 UVA 52
- 9 FSU 17 UVA 41
- 10 FSU 10 UVA 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Florida State
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Virginia it would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Florida State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.40 | +0.02 | better by 0.39 |
| Florida State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.07 | worse by 0.27 |
| Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | +0.09 | better by 0.26 |
| Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.40 | +0.12 | worse by 0.29 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida State wins 22% of them, Virginia 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida State by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 6.4% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Virginia by 17+ | 37.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Weinberg, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- J. Weinberg, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- W. Bettridge, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Florida State 3 for 40 yards, Virginia 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:44 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% UVA +3.1 pts |
| Q1 7:55 | Illegal Block on Florida State, 10 yards | +3% UVA +1.7 pts |
| Q1 6:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on Florida State, 15 yards | +2% UVA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:22 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:43 | Targeting on Virginia, 5 yards | +2% FSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:37 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:24 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | 0% FSU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Virginia’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 13:27 | Virginia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +11% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 5:15 | Florida State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% FSU | FSU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 3:24 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +9% UVA | FSU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 0:36 | Florida State converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +29% FSU | FSU: End of game |
| 5 | OT | J. Weinberg made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him | +10% UVA | – |
| 6 | OT | W. Bettridge made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +16% FSU | – |
| 7 | 2OT | Virginia’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +26% UVA | – |
| 8 | 2OT | Virginia’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +15% UVA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida State 36% · Virginia 64%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 8
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida State 22% · Virginia 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Florida State · 
Virginia
More from Week 5 2025
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at NC State VT 23–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Duke at Syracuse DUKE 38–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner