Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Oregon at Penn State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Penn State 30–24, but the replays lean toward Penn State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 31 points of win probability to Oregon.
Before kickoff Penn State was a 59% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (OT): Oregon fumbled and recovered it, worth 31 points of win probability to Oregon. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:00 left): Oregon was stopped on 4th & 7.
Final (OT)
 Oregon Ducks | 30 |
|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Oregon very lucky · −61 Penn State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 4, Penn State wins 6.
- 1 ORE 23 PSU 3
- 2 ORE 13 PSU 0
- 3 ORE 7 PSU 0
- 4 ORE 13 PSU 10
- 5 ORE 7 PSU 10
- 6 ORE 10 PSU 14
- 7 ORE 17 PSU 24
- 8 ORE 13 PSU 24
- 9 ORE 0 PSU 14
- 10 ORE 0 PSU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 39% of them, Penn State 61%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 5.4% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 28.1% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 12.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 49 yds made · 58% expected
- A. Sappington, 47 yds missed · 61% expected
- A. Sappington, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Oregon 6 for 54 yards, Penn State 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:14 | False Start on Oregon, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% PSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORE +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:28 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | +2% PSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:11 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 9:00 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PSU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon, 15 yards | +1% ORE +0.2 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon, 15 yards | +5% PSU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 7:07 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +11% ORE +2.6 pts |
| Q4 4:03 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ORE +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:22 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +7% PSU | ORE: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 9:36 | A. Sappington missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ before | +6% PSU | ORE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 7:07 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% ORE | ORE: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 6:32 | Penn State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:51 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +8% ORE | PSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:00 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +37% ORE | – |
| 7 | OT | The game turned hereOregon fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +31% ORE | – |
| 8 | 2OT | Oregon’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +22% PSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 96% · Penn State 4%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 6
- Luck in points
- 8.1 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 14.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 39% · Penn State 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Oregon · 
Penn State
More from Week 5 2025
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner
- Indiana at Iowa IU 20–15 · replay 48% for the winner
- UCLA at Northwestern NU 17–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- USC at Illinois ILL 34–32 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ohio State at Washington OSU 24–6 · replay 79% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner