luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

UCLA at Northwestern, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Northwestern beat UCLA 17–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. UCLA had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to UCLA.

Before kickoff Northwestern was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:29 left): UCLA fumbled and recovered it, worth 14 points of win probability to UCLA.

Final

UCLA Bruins 14
Northwestern Wildcats 17

September 27, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Closing line: Northwestern −6

Luck index +34 Northwestern lucky · −34 UCLA

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UCLA wins 3, Northwestern wins 7.

  1. 1 UCLA 28 NU 12
  2. 2 UCLA 21 NU 13
  3. 3 UCLA 17 NU 14
  4. 4 UCLA 17 NU 19
  5. 5 UCLA 14 NU 18
  6. 6 UCLA 7 NU 14
  7. 7 UCLA 7 NU 17
  8. 8 UCLA 14 NU 27
  9. 9 UCLA 0 NU 17
  10. 10 UCLA 14 NU 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UCLA wins 34% of them, Northwestern 66%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UCLA by 17+4.9%
UCLA by 9–169.3%
UCLA by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
Northwestern by 1–827.3%
Northwestern by 9–1620.4%
Northwestern by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to UCLA: the final margin was Northwestern by 3, without the luck Northwestern by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Olsen, 33 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Bhaghani, 28 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Bhaghani, 25 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Olsen, 20 yds missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UCLA 4 for 25 yards, Northwestern 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:26 False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NU +0.8 pts
Q1 10:12 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCLA +0.8 pts
Q2 8:53 Illegal Formation on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCLA +0.3 pts
Q2 6:18 Illegal Formation on UCLA, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NU 0.0 pts
Q3 10:39 Personal Foul on Northwestern, 15 yards +2% UCLA +1.6 pts
Q3 2:48 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 15 yards 0% NU +0.9 pts
Q4 14:12 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards +3% UCLA +1.6 pts
Q4 6:42 Personal Foul on Northwestern, 15 yards +3% UCLA +0.9 pts
Q4 1:29 False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NU +0.1 pts

When it happened

Northwestern’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northwestern was ahead in it, below while UCLA was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:34 UCLA converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% UCLA UCLA: Punt
2 Q1 4:44 Northwestern converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% NU NU: Field goal
3 Q4 7:50 J. Olsen missed a 20-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +6% UCLA NU: Punt
4 Q4 6:19 UCLA’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% UCLA UCLA: Punt
5 Q4 5:34 Northwestern converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +5% NU NU: Punt
6 Q4 3:27 Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% UCLA NU: Punt
7 Q4 1:43 Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% UCLA NU: Punt
8 Q4 1:29 UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedUCLA fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on UCLA, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +14% UCLA UCLA: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UCLA 6% · Northwestern 94%

Final margin
Northwestern by 3
Luck in points
5.8 for UCLA
Luck-adjusted margin
Northwestern by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
UCLA 34% · Northwestern 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · UCLA · Northwestern

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