Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Indiana at Iowa, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Iowa 20–15, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Indiana wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Indiana.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 73% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:01 left): D. Stevens missed a 42-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to Indiana.
Final
 Indiana Hoosiers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Indiana lucky · −52 Iowa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Indiana wins 5, Iowa wins 5.
- 1 IU 27 IOWA 3
- 2 IU 21 IOWA 7
- 3 IU 24 IOWA 14
- 4 IU 17 IOWA 10
- 5 IU 20 IOWA 17
- 6 IU 17 IOWA 20
- 7 IU 21 IOWA 27
- 8 IU 7 IOWA 17
- 9 IU 13 IOWA 27
- 10 IU 14 IOWA 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Indiana wins 48% of them, Iowa 52%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Indiana by 17+ | 11.7% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 11.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Stevens, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- N. Radicic, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- D. Stevens, 54 yds made · 49% expected
- N. Radicic, 44 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Stevens, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
Penalties: Indiana 4 for 30 yards, Iowa 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:25 | Delay of Game on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:19 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | +5% IU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:06 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards | +5% IOWA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:52 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:41 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards | +6% IOWA +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:43 | Iowa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% IOWA | IOWA: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 14:56 | Indiana was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +16% IOWA | IU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 12:43 | D. Stevens made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 12 of 19 from 45+ before | +10% IOWA | IOWA: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 9:51 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +9% IOWA | IU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 4:54 | Indiana converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% IU | IU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 2:05 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% IU | IOWA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:01 | The game turned hereD. Stevens missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +24% IU | IOWA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:28 | Indiana converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +15% IU | IU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Indiana 82% · Iowa 18%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 5
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Iowa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 6.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Indiana 48% · Iowa 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Indiana · 
Iowa
More from Week 5 2025
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner
- UCLA at Northwestern NU 17–14 · replay 66% for the winner
- USC at Illinois ILL 34–32 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ohio State at Washington OSU 24–6 · replay 79% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner