Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Indiana Hoosiers: luck and expected wins
Indiana is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 65th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Indiana wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs North Texas | W 52–16 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 2 | vs Howard | W 55–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Western Kentucky | W 38–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Northwestern | W 29–23 | 91% | +9 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Indiana win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Rutgers |  Indiana by 25.3 | 94% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Nebraska | Indiana by 6.9 | 67% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Ohio State | Indiana by 1.4 | 53% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Michigan | Indiana by 11.9 | 76% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Minnesota | Indiana by 24.0 | 93% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs USC | Indiana by 15.1 | 81% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Washington | Indiana by 15.4 | 82% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Purdue | Indiana by 32.7 | 97% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Indiana’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.05 | +1.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.04 | −9.0 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Indiana takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 CFP National Championship | vs Miami | W 27–21 | 22% | +78 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Iowa | W 20–15 | 48% | +52 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Oregon | W 30–20 | 55% | +45 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Penn State | W 27–24 | 56% | +44 |
| 2026 CFP semifinal, Peach Bowl | vs Oregon | W 56–22 | 61% | +39 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Indiana would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13–0 | 10.8 | +2.2 | 3–0 | 3–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Old Dominion | W 27–14 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 2 | vs Kennesaw State | W 56–9 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | vs Indiana State | W 73–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Illinois | W 63–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 5 | @ Iowa | W 20–15 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 7 | @ Oregon | W 30–20 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 8 | vs Michigan State | W 38–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 9 | vs UCLA | W 56–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 10 | @ Maryland | W 55–10 | 97% | +4 |
| Week 11 | @ Penn State | W 27–24 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 12 | vs Wisconsin | W 31–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 14 | @ Purdue | W 56–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 15 | vs Ohio State | W 13–10 | 68% | +32 |
| CFP quarterfinal, Rose Bowl | vs Alabama | W 38–3 | 100% | 0 |
| CFP semifinal, Peach Bowl | vs Oregon | W 56–22 | 61% | +39 |
| CFP National Championship | vs Miami | W 27–21 | 22% | +78 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Illinois, 
Iowa, 
Maryland, 
Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Minnesota, 
Nebraska, 
Northwestern, 
Ohio State, 
Oregon, 
Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, 
UCLA, 
USC, 
Washington, 
Wisconsin
How many wins does Indiana have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.8 wins.
Was Indiana lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 65th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Indiana’s luckiest season?
2025: 13–0 from play worth 10.8 wins, +2.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 4–0 from play worth 3.8 (+0.2).