CFP National Championship · January 19, 2026
Miami vs Indiana, CFP National Championship 2026: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Miami 27–21, but the replays lean toward Miami: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Indiana.
Indiana won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Miami it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff Indiana was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:04 left): Return touchdown by Indiana, worth 13 points of win probability to Indiana.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 21 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Indiana very lucky · −78 Miami
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 8, Indiana wins 2.
- 1 MIA 33 IU 3
- 2 MIA 26 IU 3
- 3 MIA 20 IU 0
- 4 MIA 16 IU 0
- 5 MIA 17 IU 5
- 6 MIA 21 IU 13
- 7 MIA 6 IU 0
- 8 MIA 13 IU 10
- 9 MIA 16 IU 20
- 10 MIA 28 IU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Indiana won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Miami it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Indiana: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.18 | worse by 0.16 |
| Miami defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.05 | better by 0.08 |
| Indiana offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.16 | worse by 0.19 |
| Indiana defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.01 | worse by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 78% of them, Indiana 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 30.2% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 24.5% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 13.5% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Radicic, 34 yds made · 84% expected
- C. Davis, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- N. Radicic, 35 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Miami 7 for 60 yards, Indiana 5 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:22 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +1% IU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:48 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards | +2% MIA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:28 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:00 | Pass Interference on Miami, 11 yards | +4% IU +2.0 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:33 | Face Mask on Miami, 15 yards | +2% IU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:11 | Holding on Miami, 9 yards | +1% IU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:55 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:42 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:26 | Roughing the Passer on Indiana, 15 yards | +2% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Indiana, 3 yards | 0% MIA +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:48 | Indiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 9:08 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% MIA | IU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 5:04 | Return touchdown by IndianaSpecial teams | +13% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:43 | Miami converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:55 | Indiana converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +11% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:18 | Indiana converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% IU | IU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 5:04 | Indiana converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +8% IU | IU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:30 | Indiana converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% IU | IU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 60% · Indiana 40%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 6
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 78% · Indiana 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
Miami · 
Indiana
More from College Football Playoff 2025
- Miami vs Ohio State MIA 24–14 · replay 30% for the winner
- Miami at Texas A&M MIA 10–3 · replay 42% for the winner
- Oregon vs Texas Tech ORE 23–0 · replay 56% for the winner
- Oregon vs Indiana IU 56–22 · replay 61% for the winner
- Miami vs Ole Miss MIA 31–27 · replay 63% for the winner
- James Madison at Oregon ORE 51–34 · replay 99% for the winner
- Alabama vs Indiana IU 38–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Alabama at Oklahoma ALA 34–24 · replay 18% for the winner
- Ole Miss vs Georgia MISS 39–34 · replay 71% for the winner
- Tulane at Ole Miss MISS 41–10 · replay 98% for the winner