luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

CFP quarterfinal, Rose Bowl · January 1, 2026

Alabama vs Indiana, CFP quarterfinal, Rose Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?

Indiana beat Alabama 38–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Indiana was a 69% favorite.

Final

Alabama Crimson Tide 3
Indiana Hoosiers 38

January 1, 2026 · Rose Bowl · Closing line: Indiana −7.5

Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Alabama

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama wins 0, Indiana wins 10.

  1. 1 ALA 7 IU 16
  2. 2 ALA 6 IU 23
  3. 3 ALA 10 IU 31
  4. 4 ALA 13 IU 37
  5. 5 ALA 3 IU 31
  6. 6 ALA 17 IU 48
  7. 7 ALA 0 IU 34
  8. 8 ALA 0 IU 35
  9. 9 ALA 0 IU 41
  10. 10 ALA 3 IU 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama by 17+0.0%
Alabama by 9–160.0%
Alabama by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Indiana by 1–81.6%
Indiana by 9–165.8%
Indiana by 17+92.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to Indiana: the final margin was Indiana by 35, without the luck Indiana by 27.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Radicic, 31 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Talty, 28 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alabama 1 for 5 yards, Indiana 1 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:35 Holding on Indiana, 10 yards +2% ALA +1.2 pts
Q4 2:00 Offside on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +1.3 pts

When it happened

Indiana’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Indiana was ahead in it, below while Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% ALA IU: Punt
2 Q1 12:13 Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% ALA ALA: Punt
3 Q1 7:31 Indiana converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +2% IU IU: Field goal
4 Q2 12:36 Alabama was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% IU ALA: Punt
5 Q2 12:35 Holding on Indiana, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% ALA ALA: Punt
6 Q2 10:49 Indiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% IU IU: Punt
7 Q2 6:48 Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% ALA IU: Punt
8 Q2 3:09 Alabama fumbled and Indiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% IU ALA: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama 0% · Indiana 100%

Final margin
Indiana by 35
Luck in points
7.5 for Indiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Indiana by 27.5
Replay with same day's form
Alabama 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · Alabama · Indiana

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