CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl · January 1, 2026
Oregon vs Texas Tech, CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Texas Tech 23–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Oregon wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Oregon.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Oregon Ducks | 23 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Oregon lucky · −44 Texas Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 6, Texas Tech wins 4.
- 1 ORE 26 TTU 3
- 2 ORE 16 TTU 0
- 3 ORE 26 TTU 13
- 4 ORE 20 TTU 12
- 5 ORE 14 TTU 10
- 6 ORE 17 TTU 14
- 7 ORE 7 TTU 9
- 8 ORE 17 TTU 24
- 9 ORE 14 TTU 25
- 10 ORE 7 TTU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 56% of them, Texas Tech 44%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 12.8% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Level after regulation | 6.0% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 14.4% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 8.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Sappington, 50 yds made · 57% expected
- S. Harrington, 54 yds missed · 50% expected
- A. Sappington, 39 yds made · 77% expected
- A. Sappington, 43 yds made · 70% expected
- A. Sappington, 36 yds missed · 83% expected
Penalties: Oregon 3 for 25 yards, Texas Tech 5 for 28 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:23 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | +2% TTU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:28 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% TTU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 2:43 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ORE +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:40 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ORE +2.0 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Illegal Snap on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 8 yards | 0% ORE +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:23 | Oregon converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedOregon was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedOregon converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedOregon was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedHolding on Oregon, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% ORE | ORE: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 10:53 | S. Harrington missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 6 of 10 from 45+ before | +5% ORE | TTU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 6:13 | Oregon converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +6% ORE | ORE: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 4:08 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% TTU | ORE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:29 | Texas Tech fumbled and Oregon recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ORE | TTU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:06 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +7% TTU | ORE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:24 | Texas Tech fumbled and Oregon recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ORE | TTU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 6:34 | Texas Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +6% ORE | TTU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 90% · Texas Tech 10%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 23
- Luck in points
- 11.3 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 11.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 56% · Texas Tech 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
Oregon · 
Texas Tech
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