luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

CFP first round · December 19, 2025

Alabama at Oklahoma, CFP first round 2025: who deserved to win?

Alabama beat Oklahoma 34–24, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 8 of 10.

Alabama won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Oklahoma it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers

Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:18 left): Return touchdown by Alabama, worth 20 points of win probability to Alabama.

Final

Alabama Crimson Tide 34
Oklahoma Sooners 24

December 19, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Closing line: Oklahoma −1.5

Luck index +82 Alabama very lucky · −82 Oklahoma

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama wins 2, Oklahoma wins 8.

  1. 1 ALA 20 OU 7
  2. 2 ALA 7 OU 3
  3. 3 ALA 17 OU 20
  4. 4 ALA 17 OU 24
  5. 5 ALA 3 OU 13
  6. 6 ALA 7 OU 19
  7. 7 ALA 6 OU 21
  8. 8 ALA 6 OU 24
  9. 9 ALA 7 OU 29
  10. 10 ALA 3 OU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Alabama won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Oklahoma it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.

35 points apart for Alabama: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Alabama offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.08 worse by 0.05
Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.04 better by 0.08
Oklahoma offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 +0.02 worse by 0.07
Oklahoma defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 −0.04 worse by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama wins 18% of them, Oklahoma 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama by 17+2.2%
Alabama by 9–165.9%
Alabama by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
Oklahoma by 1–820.9%
Oklahoma by 9–1619.5%
Oklahoma by 17+40.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to Alabama: the final margin was Alabama by 10, without the luck Alabama by 8.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Sandell, 51 yds made · 59% expected
  • C. Talty, 35 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. Talty, 40 yds made · 71% expected
  • T. Sandell, 36 yds missed · 86% expected
  • T. Sandell, 51 yds missed · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alabama 4 for 46 yards, Oklahoma 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:49 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma, 15 yards +2% ALA +0.9 pts
Q2 4:29 Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.1 pts
Q2 0:22 Sideline Interference on Alabama, 16 yards 0% OU +1.7 pts
Q3 13:37 False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% OU +0.9 pts
Q3 12:19 Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yards +5% ALA +1.6 pts
Q3 8:06 Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards +3% ALA +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Pass Interference on Alabama, 15 yards +5% OU +1.8 pts
Q4 9:48 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ALA +0.8 pts
Q4 5:55 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +1% OU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma was ahead in it, below while Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 Oklahoma converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% OU OU: Punt
2 Q1 6:04 Oklahoma converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% OU OU: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:18 Return touchdown by AlabamaSpecial teams +20% ALA ALA: Punt
4 Q3 12:19 Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% ALA ALA: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:25 Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% ALA ALA: Field goal
6 Q4 15:00 Pass Interference on Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% OU OU: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:07 Alabama fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ALA ALA: Punt
8 Q4 4:10 Oklahoma converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% OU OU: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama 89% · Oklahoma 11%

Final margin
Alabama by 10
Luck in points
1.7 for Alabama
Luck-adjusted margin
Alabama by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Alabama 18% · Oklahoma 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · Alabama · Oklahoma

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