CFP first round · December 20, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 45 of the 51 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Tulane at Ole Miss, CFP first round 2025: who deserved to win?
Ole Miss beat Tulane 41–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ole Miss wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ole Miss was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Tulane Green Wave | 10 |
|---|---|
 Ole Miss Rebels | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Ole Miss about even · −2 Tulane
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulane wins 0, Ole Miss wins 10.
- 1 TULN 24 MISS 30
- 2 TULN 51 MISS 62
- 3 TULN 30 MISS 45
- 4 TULN 28 MISS 46
- 5 TULN 21 MISS 45
- 6 TULN 14 MISS 41
- 7 TULN 14 MISS 45
- 8 TULN 0 MISS 35
- 9 TULN 14 MISS 54
- 10 TULN 14 MISS 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulane wins 2% of them, Ole Miss 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulane by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 5.6% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 9.2% |
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 83.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Durkin, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- L. Carneiro, 42 yds missed · 65% expected
- L. Carneiro, 48 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Tulane 3 for 38 yards, Ole Miss 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:47 | Horse Collar Tackle on Tulane, 15 yards | +1% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:16 | Delay of Game on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:11 | Face Mask on Tulane, 15 yards | +1% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:55 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 8 yards | 0% MISS +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Ole Miss’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:22 | Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% TULN | TULN: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 9:49 | Tulane converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% TULN | TULN: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 8:47 | Horse Collar Tackle on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:05 | Tulane converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% TULN | TULN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 3:08 | Tulane was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +1% MISS | TULN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 8:11 | Face Mask on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 7:16 | Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +1% TULN | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 6:38 | Ole Miss converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +1% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulane 0% · Ole Miss 100%
- Final margin
- Ole Miss by 31
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ole Miss by 32.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulane 2% · Ole Miss 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 45 of the 51 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
Tulane · 
Ole Miss
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