CFP first round · December 20, 2025
Miami at Texas A&M, CFP first round 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Texas A&M 10–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Miami wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:11 left): Miami fumbled and Texas A&M recovered, worth 12 points of win probability to Texas A&M.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 10 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Miami lucky · −58 Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 4, Texas A&M wins 6.
- 1 MIA 37 TA&M 16
- 2 MIA 20 TA&M 7
- 3 MIA 20 TA&M 13
- 4 MIA 16 TA&M 13
- 5 MIA 7 TA&M 10
- 6 MIA 17 TA&M 21
- 7 MIA 3 TA&M 10
- 8 MIA 13 TA&M 24
- 9 MIA 9 TA&M 24
- 10 MIA 10 TA&M 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 42% of them, Texas A&M 58%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 7.2% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 11.3% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 16.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 47 yds missed · 62% expected
- C. Davis, 40 yds missed · 74% expected
- C. Davis, 21 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Davis, 35 yds missed · 81% expected
- R. Bond, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Miami 4 for 30 yards, Texas A&M 3 for 16 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:23 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:28 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | Intentional Grounding on Texas A&M, 6 yards | +1% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:48 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TA&M +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:16 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% TA&M +1.2 pts |
| Q4 1:30 | Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yards | +5% TA&M +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 1:51 | Texas A&M was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% MIA | TA&M: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 7:13 | C. Davis missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +8% TA&M | MIA: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 14:13 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +6% TA&M | TA&M: End of game |
| 4 | Q4 12:40 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% TA&M | TA&M: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 10:23 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +11% TA&M | TA&M: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 7:11 | Miami fumbled and Texas A&M recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% TA&M | MIA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:38 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% MIA | TA&M: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:44 | Miami converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +11% MIA | MIA: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 100% · Texas A&M 0%
- Final margin
- Miami by 7
- Luck in points
- 11.2 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 18.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 42% · Texas A&M 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
Miami · 
Texas A&M
More from College Football Playoff 2025
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- Ole Miss vs Georgia MISS 39–34 · replay 71% for the winner
- Tulane at Ole Miss MISS 41–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Alabama vs Indiana IU 38–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon vs Texas Tech ORE 23–0 · replay 56% for the winner
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