luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl · December 31, 2025

Miami vs Ohio State, CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Miami beat Ohio State 24–14, but the replays lean toward Ohio State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Miami.

Before kickoff Ohio State was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:49 left): Return touchdown by Miami, worth 23 points of win probability to Miami.

Final

Miami Hurricanes 24
Ohio State Buckeyes 14

December 31, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Ohio State −7.5

Luck index +70 Miami very lucky · −70 Ohio State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami wins 3, Ohio State wins 7.

  1. 1 MIA 17 OSU 3
  2. 2 MIA 27 OSU 20
  3. 3 MIA 10 OSU 7
  4. 4 MIA 7 OSU 10
  5. 5 MIA 24 OSU 28
  6. 6 MIA 6 OSU 14
  7. 7 MIA 18 OSU 31
  8. 8 MIA 0 OSU 17
  9. 9 MIA 13 OSU 34
  10. 10 MIA 14 OSU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami wins 30% of them, Ohio State 70%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami by 17+4.2%
Miami by 9–1610.0%
Miami by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Ohio State by 1–827.8%
Ohio State by 9–1618.7%
Ohio State by 17+22.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.9 points to Miami: the final margin was Miami by 10, without the luck Ohio State by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Fielding, 49 yds missed · 57% expected
  • C. Davis, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Miami 0 for 0 yards, Ohio State 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q4 7:25 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards +9% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 6:09 Illegal Formation on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.2 pts

When it happened

Ohio State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ohio State was ahead in it, below while Miami was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:49 Return touchdown by MiamiSpecial teams +23% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q3 3:01 C. Davis made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 4 of 5 from 45+ before +7% MIA MIA: Punt
3 Q4 14:10 Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% MIA OSU: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:28 Ohio State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% OSU OSU: Punt
5 Q4 12:29 Miami converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q4 7:56 Ohio State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +15% OSU OSU: Punt
7 Q4 7:25 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:40 Miami converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami 45% · Ohio State 55%

Final margin
Miami by 10
Luck in points
10.9 for Miami
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio State by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Miami 30% · Ohio State 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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