luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

CFP semifinal, Peach Bowl · January 9, 2026

Oregon vs Indiana, CFP semifinal, Peach Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?

Indiana beat Oregon 56–22, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Indiana was a 58% favorite.

Final

Oregon Ducks 22
Indiana Hoosiers 56

January 9, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Indiana −3

Luck index +39 Indiana lucky · −39 Oregon

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oregon wins 4, Indiana wins 6.

  1. 1 ORE 31 IU 9
  2. 2 ORE 27 IU 14
  3. 3 ORE 20 IU 14
  4. 4 ORE 24 IU 21
  5. 5 ORE 28 IU 31
  6. 6 ORE 23 IU 28
  7. 7 ORE 14 IU 24
  8. 8 ORE 14 IU 27
  9. 9 ORE 3 IU 21
  10. 10 ORE 13 IU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oregon wins 39% of them, Indiana 61%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oregon by 17+8.9%
Oregon by 9–1611.2%
Oregon by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation7.1%
Indiana by 1–820.0%
Indiana by 9–1616.3%
Indiana by 17+18.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to Indiana: the final margin was Indiana by 34, without the luck Indiana by 23.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Oregon 5 for 43 yards, Indiana 5 for 23 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:57 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORE +0.7 pts
Q2 11:31 Block Below the Waist on Oregon, 15 yards +2% IU +1.6 pts
Q2 0:41 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards 0% IU +0.4 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORE +0.7 pts
Q3 7:59 Pass Interference on Indiana, 2 yards 0% ORE +0.6 pts
Q3 7:50 Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% ORE +5.1 pts
Q3 3:18 Face Mask on Oregon, 3 yards 0% IU +0.2 pts
Q4 14:04 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards 0% IU +0.6 pts
Q4 13:12 Delay of Game on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.4 pts
Q4 0:37 Pass Interference on Indiana, 1 yard 0% ORE +1.2 pts

When it happened

Indiana’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Indiana was ahead in it, below while Oregon was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:05 Oregon converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% ORE ORE: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:11 Oregon converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% ORE ORE: Punt
3 Q1 5:50 Indiana converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% IU IU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:44 Indiana converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% IU IU: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:05 Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +2% IU ORE: Punt
6 Q2 12:06 Indiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +3% IU IU: Punt
7 Q2 9:29 Oregon fumbled and Indiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% IU ORE: Punt
8 Q2 8:17 Indiana converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% ORE IU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oregon 0% · Indiana 100%

Final margin
Indiana by 34
Luck in points
10.3 for Indiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Indiana by 23.7
Replay with same day's form
Oregon 39% · Indiana 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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