CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl · January 1, 2026
Ole Miss vs Georgia, CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?
Ole Miss beat Georgia 39–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:00 left): Georgia converted 4th & 9, worth 23 points of win probability to Georgia.
Final
 Ole Miss Rebels | 39 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Ole Miss lucky · −29 Georgia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ole Miss wins 7, Georgia wins 3.
- 1 MISS 41 UGA 7
- 2 MISS 50 UGA 27
- 3 MISS 38 UGA 20
- 4 MISS 20 UGA 7
- 5 MISS 45 UGA 35
- 6 MISS 37 UGA 31
- 7 MISS 31 UGA 28
- 8 MISS 34 UGA 37
- 9 MISS 21 UGA 30
- 10 MISS 13 UGA 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ole Miss wins 71% of them, Georgia 29%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 30.3% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 4.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Carneiro, 55 yds made · 40% expected
- L. Carneiro, 56 yds made · 40% expected
- P. Woodring, 55 yds missed · 51% expected
- P. Woodring, 37 yds made · 83% expected
- P. Woodring, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- L. Carneiro, 47 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Ole Miss 4 for 48 yards, Georgia 4 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:46 | Face Mask on Georgia, 8 yards | +3% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:34 | Delay of Game on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +14% MISS +6.1 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards | +3% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 9 yards | +3% UGA +2.1 pts |
| Q4 8:57 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +3% UGA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:43 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | +8% MISS +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +12% UGA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Holding on Ole Miss, 9 yards | +13% UGA +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 4:15 | Georgia converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 3:38 | Georgia converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +11% UGA | UGA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 9:31 | Georgia fumbled and Ole Miss recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MISS | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 3:00 | Georgia converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +23% UGA | UGA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 2:43 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MISS | MISS: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:55 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +12% UGA | UGA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:13 | Holding on Ole Miss, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +13% UGA | UGA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:26 | Ole Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +15% MISS | MISS: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ole Miss 34% · Georgia 66%
- Final margin
- Ole Miss by 5
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for Ole Miss
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Ole Miss 71% · Georgia 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
Ole Miss · 
Georgia
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