CFP first round · December 20, 2025
James Madison at Oregon, CFP first round 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat James Madison 51–34, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 91% favorite.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 34 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Oregon about even · −1 James Madison
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 0, Oregon wins 10.
- 1 JMU 21 ORE 28
- 2 JMU 7 ORE 24
- 3 JMU 9 ORE 30
- 4 JMU 17 ORE 42
- 5 JMU 7 ORE 35
- 6 JMU 13 ORE 45
- 7 JMU 7 ORE 44
- 8 JMU 0 ORE 41
- 9 JMU 17 ORE 63
- 10 JMU 0 ORE 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 1% of them, Oregon 99%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 0.0% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 2.0% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 91.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Suarez, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- M. Suarez, 40 yds blocked · 73% expected
- M. Suarez, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- A. Sappington, 48 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: James Madison 13 for 113 yards, Oregon 5 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +1% ORE +1.4 pts |
| Q2 13:02 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% ORE +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:51 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:34 | Face Mask on Oregon, 15 yards | 0% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% ORE +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:00 | Illegal Block on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% ORE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards | 0% JMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:11 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 11 yards | 0% ORE +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:01 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon, 15 yards | 0% JMU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% ORE +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:22 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:18 | Face Mask on Oregon, 15 yards | 0% JMU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 3:58 | False Start on James Madison, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.1 pts |
| Q4 3:42 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 11 yards | 0% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% ORE +2.7 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:50 | James Madison fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% JMU | JMU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:29 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% ORE | JMU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:52 | James Madison converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:50 | James Madison converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 5:19 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% ORE | JMU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 1:45 | James Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +1% JMU | JMU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 14:16 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 13:07 | M. Suarez had a 40-yard field goal blockedKicks · 73% expected for him | +1% ORE | JMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 2% · Oregon 98%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 17
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 13.5
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 1% · Oregon 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
James Madison · 
Oregon
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