CFP semifinal, Fiesta Bowl · January 8, 2026
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 46 of the 58 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Miami vs Ole Miss, CFP semifinal, Fiesta Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Ole Miss 31–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Ole Miss had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Ole Miss.
Before kickoff Miami was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:22 left): L. Carneiro missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to Ole Miss.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 31 |
|---|---|
 Ole Miss Rebels | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Miami lucky · −37 Ole Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 6, Ole Miss wins 4.
- 1 MIA 31 MISS 3
- 2 MIA 28 MISS 7
- 3 MIA 30 MISS 14
- 4 MIA 24 MISS 13
- 5 MIA 28 MISS 21
- 6 MIA 24 MISS 21
- 7 MIA 24 MISS 27
- 8 MIA 16 MISS 23
- 9 MIA 17 MISS 28
- 10 MIA 24 MISS 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 63% of them, Ole Miss 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 22.3% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 17.2% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 11.2% |
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 7.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- L. Carneiro, 42 yds missed · 66% expected
- L. Carneiro, 58 yds missed · 38% expected
- C. Davis, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
- L. Carneiro, 51 yds missed · 48% expected
- L. Carneiro, 54 yds missed · 42% expected
- L. Carneiro, 21 yds missed · 89% expected
Penalties: Miami 10 for 74 yards, Ole Miss 4 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:57 | Intentional Grounding on Ole Miss, 0 yards | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q1 3:26 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +1% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:34 | False Start on Miami, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:01 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:34 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 4 yards | +1% MIA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:23 | Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yards | +2% MISS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:48 | Intentional Grounding on Miami, 0 yards | 0% MISS 0.0 pts |
| Q3 6:43 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:49 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MISS +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | Targeting on Miami, 15 yards | +9% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | Personal Foul on Miami, 8 yards | +7% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:00 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | 0% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:16 | Pass Interference on Miami, 7 yards | 0% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yards | 0% MIA +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Ole Miss’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:11 | L. Carneiro missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 38% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before | +6% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q3 14:16 | Miami converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% MIA | MIA: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 0:22 | L. Carneiro missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 42% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before | +10% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 8:54 | Targeting on Miami, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 8:30 | Personal Foul on Miami, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +7% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:03 | Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% MIA | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 3:13 | Ole Miss’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% MISS | MISS: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:20 | Miami converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 1% · Ole Miss 99%
- Final margin
- Miami by 4
- Luck in points
- 21.5 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ole Miss by 17.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 63% · Ole Miss 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 46 of the 58 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All College Football Playoff 2025 games · 
Miami · 
Ole Miss
More from College Football Playoff 2025
- Alabama at Oklahoma ALA 34–24 · replay 18% for the winner
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