Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Ohio State Buckeyes: luck and expected wins
Ohio State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck cost 0.7: the 25th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Ohio State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ball State | W 56–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Texas | L 23–24 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 3 | vs Kent State | W 59–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Illinois | W 42–19 | 97% | +3 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Ohio State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Iowa |  Ohio State by 7.0 | 67% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Maryland | Ohio State by 33.8 | 98% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Indiana |  Indiana by 1.4 | 47% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at USC | Ohio State by 10.5 | 74% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Oregon | Ohio State by 11.7 | 76% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Northwestern | Ohio State by 18.7 | 87% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Nebraska | Ohio State by 8.6 | 69% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Michigan | Ohio State by 19.9 | 88% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Ohio State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.06 | +3.5 |
| Kicks | −0.09 | −5.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.11 | +1.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Ohio State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Texas | W 14–7 | 38% | +62 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Illinois | W 34–16 | 61% | +39 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Washington | W 24–6 | 79% | +21 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Purdue | W 34–10 | 94% | +6 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Michigan | W 27–9 | 95% | +5 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Ohio State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl | vs Miami | L 14–24 | 70% | −70 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Texas | L 23–24 | 68% | −68 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Indiana | L 10–13 | 32% | −32 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12–1 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 1–1 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texas | W 14–7 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 2 | vs Grambling | W 70–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Ohio | W 37–9 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 5 | @ Washington | W 24–6 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 6 | vs Minnesota | W 42–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 7 | @ Illinois | W 34–16 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 8 | @ Wisconsin | W 34–0 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 10 | vs Penn State | W 38–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Purdue | W 34–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | vs UCLA | W 48–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 13 | vs Rutgers | W 42–9 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 14 | @ Michigan | W 27–9 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 15 | vs Indiana | L 10–13 | 32% | −32 |
| CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl | vs Miami | L 14–24 | 70% | −70 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Illinois, Indiana, 
Iowa, 
Maryland, 
Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Minnesota, 
Nebraska, 
Northwestern, 
Oregon, 
Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, 
UCLA, 
USC, 
Washington, 
Wisconsin
How many wins does Ohio State have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.7 wins.
Was Ohio State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.7 wins of luck, the 25th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Ohio State’s luckiest season?
2025: 12–1 from play worth 11.0 wins, +1.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 3.7 (−0.7).