Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Penn State at Ohio State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Penn State 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 14 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Ohio State about even · 0 Penn State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penn State wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.
- 1 PSU 21 OSU 35
- 2 PSU 13 OSU 35
- 3 PSU 10 OSU 38
- 4 PSU 7 OSU 38
- 5 PSU 10 OSU 44
- 6 PSU 7 OSU 44
- 7 PSU 0 OSU 41
- 8 PSU 0 OSU 44
- 9 PSU 0 OSU 48
- 10 PSU 7 OSU 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Penn State wins 0% of them, Ohio State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penn State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 96.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Penn State 2 for 30 yards, Ohio State 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:41 | Roughing the Passer on Penn State, 15 yards | +1% OSU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 7:52 | Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards | +1% OSU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 12:23 | Kick Catch Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% PSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:43 | Targeting on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% PSU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +1% OSU | PSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:25 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:41 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedRoughing the Passer on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% OSU | OSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% PSU | OSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 14:08 | Penn State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedJ. Fielding made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +4% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:20 | Ohio State fumbled and Penn State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% PSU | OSU: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 12:18 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +1% PSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 7:52 | Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penn State 0% · Ohio State 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 24
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 30.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Penn State 0% · Ohio State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Penn State · 
Ohio State
More from Week 10 2025
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- USC at Nebraska USC 21–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Purdue at Michigan MICH 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Indiana at Maryland IU 55–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Rutgers at Illinois ILL 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner