Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
USC at Nebraska, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
USC beat Nebraska 21–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Nebraska had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Nebraska.
Before kickoff USC was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:43 left): Nebraska fumbled and recovered it, worth 14 points of win probability to Nebraska.
Final
 USC Trojans | 21 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 USC lucky · −29 Nebraska
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. USC wins 7, Nebraska wins 3.
- 1 USC 40 NEB 7
- 2 USC 28 NEB 7
- 3 USC 49 NEB 31
- 4 USC 37 NEB 24
- 5 USC 27 NEB 17
- 6 USC 20 NEB 14
- 7 USC 24 NEB 21
- 8 USC 14 NEB 17
- 9 USC 35 NEB 42
- 10 USC 7 NEB 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
USC wins 71% of them, Nebraska 29%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: USC by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| USC by 17+ | 28.7% |
| USC by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| USC by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Sayeri, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Sayeri, 49 yds made · 58% expected
- K. Cunanan, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
- K. Cunanan, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: USC 7 for 55 yards, Nebraska 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:46 | False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 2:58 | Illegal Formation on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 13:26 | False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:31 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | 0% USC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:45 | Pass Interference on USC, 15 yards | +5% NEB +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Intentional Grounding on USC, 6 yards | +1% NEB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | False Start on USC, 4 yards · pre-snap | +5% NEB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yards | +8% NEB +2.1 pts |
| Q4 10:17 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards | +5% USC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 3:36 | Delay of Game on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEB +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:29 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% NEB | NEB: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 12:04 | Nebraska fumbled and USC recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% USC | NEB: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 8:38 | USC was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +8% NEB | USC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:36 | USC converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 13:52 | Nebraska fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:43 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedNebraska fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% NEB | NEB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:26 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +11% USC | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
USC 80% · Nebraska 20%
- Final margin
- USC by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Nebraska
- Luck-adjusted margin
- USC by 5.7
- Replay with same day's form
- USC 71% · Nebraska 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
USC · 
Nebraska
More from Week 10 2025
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- Purdue at Michigan MICH 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Indiana at Maryland IU 55–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Rutgers at Illinois ILL 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Penn State at Ohio State OSU 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner