Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Indiana at Maryland, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Maryland 55–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Indiana Hoosiers | 55 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Indiana about even · −4 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Indiana wins 10, Maryland wins 0.
- 1 IU 59 MD 13
- 2 IU 41 MD 3
- 3 IU 38 MD 6
- 4 IU 49 MD 21
- 5 IU 42 MD 17
- 6 IU 41 MD 20
- 7 IU 35 MD 17
- 8 IU 28 MD 13
- 9 IU 26 MD 14
- 10 IU 27 MD 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Indiana wins 96% of them, Maryland 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 45.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Indiana by 17+ | 73.3% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 14.2% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- N. Radicic, 20 yds made · 96% expected
- N. Radicic, 46 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: Indiana 4 for 30 yards, Maryland 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:57 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD 0.0 pts |
| Q1 0:06 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:09 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +1.7 pts |
| Q3 0:28 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards | 0% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:16 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | 0% IU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:01 | S. O'Haire made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +1% IU | MD: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:30 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +1% MD | IU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:00 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +1% IU | MD: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:03 | Indiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:11 | Indiana converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% IU | IU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 0:35 | Maryland converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% MD | MD: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 11:09 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +1% MD | IU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 8:41 | Maryland fumbled and Indiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by IndianaSpecial teams | +2% IU | MD: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Indiana 100% · Maryland 0%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 45
- Luck in points
- 7.7 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 37.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Indiana 96% · Maryland 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Indiana · 
Maryland
More from Week 10 2025
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- USC at Nebraska USC 21–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Purdue at Michigan MICH 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Rutgers at Illinois ILL 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Penn State at Ohio State OSU 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner