Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Rutgers at Illinois, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat Rutgers 35–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Illinois wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Illinois was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 13 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Illinois about even · 0 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rutgers wins 0, Illinois wins 10.
- 1 RUTG 14 ILL 27
- 2 RUTG 0 ILL 17
- 3 RUTG 13 ILL 35
- 4 RUTG 3 ILL 28
- 5 RUTG 0 ILL 28
- 6 RUTG 7 ILL 38
- 7 RUTG 0 ILL 34
- 8 RUTG 0 ILL 36
- 9 RUTG 0 ILL 40
- 10 RUTG 0 ILL 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rutgers wins 0% of them, Illinois 100%. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rutgers by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 94.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Patel, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- J. Patel, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- D. Olano, 45 yds missed · 67% expected
Penalties: Rutgers 3 for 20 yards, Illinois 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:24 | Delay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | +1% RUTG +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:18 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +2% ILL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:54 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +2.3 pts |
| Q4 0:52 | False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:24 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDelay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% ILL | RUTG: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:59 | Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:35 | Illinois converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% ILL | ILL: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 8:53 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +3% ILL | RUTG: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 8:14 | Rutgers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% RUTG | RUTG: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 4:09 | Illinois converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 2:04 | Illinois converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:33 | Illinois converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rutgers 1% · Illinois 99%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 22
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 14.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rutgers 0% · Illinois 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Rutgers · 
Illinois
More from Week 10 2025
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- USC at Nebraska USC 21–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Purdue at Michigan MICH 21–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Indiana at Maryland IU 55–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Penn State at Ohio State OSU 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner