luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Purdue at Michigan, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Michigan beat Purdue 21–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Michigan was a 91% favorite.

Final

Purdue Boilermakers 16
Michigan Wolverines 21

November 1, 2025 · Michigan Stadium · Closing line: Michigan −21

Luck index +11 Michigan about even · −11 Purdue

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Purdue wins 1, Michigan wins 9.

  1. 1 PUR 30 MICH 21
  2. 2 PUR 0 MICH 3
  3. 3 PUR 14 MICH 21
  4. 4 PUR 17 MICH 28
  5. 5 PUR 17 MICH 31
  6. 6 PUR 10 MICH 27
  7. 7 PUR 10 MICH 30
  8. 8 PUR 14 MICH 38
  9. 9 PUR 7 MICH 35
  10. 10 PUR 0 MICH 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Purdue wins 11% of them, Michigan 89%. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Purdue by 17+0.8%
Purdue by 9–163.1%
Purdue by 1–87.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Michigan by 1–817.6%
Michigan by 9–1620.4%
Michigan by 17+50.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to Purdue: the final margin was Michigan by 5, without the luck Michigan by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Purdue 4 for 38 yards, Michigan 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:51 Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PUR +0.3 pts
Q1 11:58 Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PUR +0.9 pts
Q2 12:38 Holding on Purdue, 10 yards +1% MICH +1.1 pts
Q2 8:32 Ineligible Downfield on Purdue, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MICH +2.7 pts
Q3 9:05 Intentional Grounding on Purdue, 8 yards +1% MICH +0.5 pts
Q3 4:31 Unnecessary Roughness on Purdue, 15 yards +2% MICH +1.6 pts
Q4 7:56 Pass Interference on Michigan, 15 yards +1% PUR +0.7 pts

When it happened

Michigan’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Michigan was ahead in it, below while Purdue was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:34 Purdue fumbled and Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% MICH PUR: Punt
2 Q2 8:32 Ineligible Downfield on Purdue, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% MICH MICH: Turnover
3 Q2 2:54 Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +2% MICH MICH: Turnover
4 Q3 10:29 Purdue converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% PUR PUR: Field goal
5 Q3 4:31 Unnecessary Roughness on Purdue, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% MICH MICH: Turnover
6 Q3 3:42 Michigan fumbled and Purdue recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% PUR MICH: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:22 Purdue converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% PUR PUR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 14:54 Purdue was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% MICH PUR: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Purdue 13% · Michigan 87%

Final margin
Michigan by 5
Luck in points
1.3 for Purdue
Luck-adjusted margin
Michigan by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Purdue 11% · Michigan 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Purdue · Michigan

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