luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Georgia Tech at NC State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

NC State beat Georgia Tech 48–36, but the replays lean toward Georgia Tech: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to NC State.

Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:26 left): NC State converted 3rd & 20, worth 8 points of win probability to NC State.

Final

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 36
NC State Wolfpack 48

November 1, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium · Closing line: Georgia Tech −4.5

Luck index +65 NC State very lucky · −65 Georgia Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 6, NC State wins 4.

  1. 1 GT 59 NCSU 28
  2. 2 GT 48 NCSU 27
  3. 3 GT 42 NCSU 27
  4. 4 GT 38 NCSU 28
  5. 5 GT 30 NCSU 24
  6. 6 GT 31 NCSU 28
  7. 7 GT 28 NCSU 31
  8. 8 GT 42 NCSU 49
  9. 9 GT 35 NCSU 45
  10. 10 GT 14 NCSU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia Tech wins 65% of them, NC State 35%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia Tech by 17+24.5%
Georgia Tech by 9–1617.1%
Georgia Tech by 1–821.5%
Level after regulation6.6%
NC State by 1–815.8%
NC State by 9–167.9%
NC State by 17+6.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to NC State: the final margin was NC State by 12, without the luck NC State by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Birr, 43 yds made · 70% expected
  • A. Birr, 54 yds missed · 50% expected
  • K. Vinesett, 34 yds made · 81% expected
  • A. Birr, 23 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Birr, 29 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Vinesett, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia Tech 4 for 23 yards, NC State 7 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards +7% GT +3.8 pts
Q1 2:05 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GT +0.6 pts
Q2 7:42 Pass Interference on NC State, 4 yards +5% GT +2.2 pts
Q2 5:18 Holding on NC State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GT +1.7 pts
Q2 0:33 Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 11 yards +2% NCSU +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NCSU +1.2 pts
Q3 8:23 False Start on Georgia Tech, 4 yards · pre-snap +5% NCSU +1.5 pts
Q3 7:58 Face Mask on Georgia Tech, 3 yards +3% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q4 8:25 Holding on NC State, 10 yards +1% GT +0.6 pts
Q4 3:32 Targeting on NC State, 15 yards 0% GT +1.7 pts
Q4 2:21 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GT +0.4 pts

When it happened

NC State’s chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while NC State was ahead in it, below while Georgia Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 NC State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedPass Interference on NC State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% GT NCSU: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:42 Pass Interference on NC State, 4 yardsJudgment calls +5% GT GT: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:53 NC State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NCSU NCSU: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 4:26 NC State converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +8% NCSU NCSU: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 3:07 NC State fumbled and Georgia Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Georgia TechSpecial teams +7% NCSU NCSU: Field goal
6 Q2 0:56 A. Birr missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 6 of 12 from 45+ before +5% NCSU GT: Field goal
7 Q3 8:59 Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% NCSU GT: Field goal
8 Q3 8:23 False Start on Georgia Tech, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +5% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia Tech 21% · NC State 79%

Final margin
NC State by 12
Luck in points
7.2 for NC State
Luck-adjusted margin
NC State by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Georgia Tech 65% · NC State 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Georgia Tech · NC State

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