Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Notre Dame at Boston College, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Boston College 25–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 25 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Notre Dame about even · −4 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Notre Dame wins 10, Boston College wins 0.
- 1 ND 54 BC 10
- 2 ND 45 BC 10
- 3 ND 35 BC 3
- 4 ND 28 BC 0
- 5 ND 38 BC 14
- 6 ND 28 BC 7
- 7 ND 24 BC 7
- 8 ND 21 BC 7
- 9 ND 27 BC 17
- 10 ND 21 BC 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Notre Dame wins 96% of them, Boston College 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 71.5% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 15.1% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Schmidt, 35 yds missed · 79% expected
- L. Lombardo, 25 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Notre Dame 6 for 52 yards, Boston College 8 for 73 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 15 yards | 0% ND +1.3 pts |
| Q1 11:55 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:44 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ND +4.2 pts |
| Q2 14:34 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +1.0 pts |
| Q2 6:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Notre Dame, 15 yards | +1% BC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Roughing the Passer on Boston College, 15 yards | +1% ND +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:00 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 7 yards | +5% BC +3.2 pts |
| Q3 1:32 | Roughing the Passer on Boston College, 5 yards | +1% ND +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offside on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +1.5 pts |
| Q4 12:55 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yards | +3% BC +2.5 pts |
| Q4 12:49 | Delay of Game on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:49 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ND +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:48 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | 0% ND +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:41 | Intentional Grounding on Boston College, 8 yards | 0% ND +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 11:59 | Boston College converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 10:06 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +2% ND | BC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 9:23 | Boston College converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +1% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 7:42 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +2% ND | BC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 7:04 | Boston College converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +2% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 5:00 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +5% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 14:13 | Boston College fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% BC | BC: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 12:55 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% BC | BC: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Notre Dame 100% · Boston College 0%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 15
- Luck in points
- 12.2 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 27.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Notre Dame 96% · Boston College 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Notre Dame · 
Boston College
More from Week 10 2025
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Stanford PITT 35–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- UAB at UConn CONN 38–19 · replay 93% for the winner
- North Carolina at Syracuse UNC 27–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Louisville at Virginia Tech LOU 28–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Florida State FSU 42–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner