Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Virginia at California, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat California 31–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Virginia wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:34 left): Return touchdown by Virginia, worth 24 points of win probability to Virginia.
Final
 Virginia Cavaliers | 31 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Virginia lucky · −46 California
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia wins 5, California wins 5.
- 1 UVA 41 CAL 14
- 2 UVA 27 CAL 10
- 3 UVA 17 CAL 6
- 4 UVA 31 CAL 24
- 5 UVA 17 CAL 14
- 6 UVA 7 CAL 10
- 7 UVA 20 CAL 26
- 8 UVA 28 CAL 38
- 9 UVA 6 CAL 21
- 10 UVA 13 CAL 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia wins 54% of them, California 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia by 17+ | 17.9% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| California by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| California by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| California by 17+ | 11.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Bettridge, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Bettridge, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: Virginia 4 for 35 yards, California 3 for 21 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:59 | Illegal Block on California, 13 yards | +1% UVA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UVA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:08 | Offside on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on Virginia, 15 yards | 0% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +5% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:37 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:03 | Holding on California, 3 yards | +1% UVA +0.2 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:44 | Virginia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 11:09 | Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% CAL | UVA: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:28 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CAL | CAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 7:01 | California converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +9% CAL | CAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:16 | California fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CAL | CAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:23 | Virginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% UVA | UVA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:45 | Virginia was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +13% CAL | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:34 | Return touchdown by VirginiaSpecial teams | +24% UVA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia 97% · California 3%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 11.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia 54% · California 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Virginia · 
California
More from Week 10 2025
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Stanford PITT 35–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- North Carolina at Syracuse UNC 27–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Louisville at Virginia Tech LOU 28–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Boston College ND 25–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Florida State FSU 42–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner