Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Army at Air Force, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Army beat Air Force 20–17, but the replays lean toward Air Force: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Army.
Before kickoff Army was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:31 left): Pass Interference on Army, 15 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to Air Force.
Final
 Army Black Knights | 20 |
|---|---|
 Air Force Falcons | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Army very lucky · −66 Air Force
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Army wins 3, Air Force wins 7.
- 1 ARMY 27 AF 10
- 2 ARMY 21 AF 13
- 3 ARMY 17 AF 14
- 4 ARMY 14 AF 16
- 5 ARMY 27 AF 31
- 6 ARMY 10 AF 17
- 7 ARMY 24 AF 34
- 8 ARMY 17 AF 31
- 9 ARMY 6 AF 24
- 10 ARMY 3 AF 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Army wins 34% of them, Air Force 66%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Army by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Army by 17+ | 5.7% |
| Army by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Army by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.5% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Air Force by 17+ | 21.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Tubbs, 52 yds made · 51% expected
- D. Jones, 44 yds made · 64% expected
- R. Tubbs, 40 yds missed · 74% expected
- D. Jones, 27 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Army 4 for 50 yards, Air Force 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:19 | Personal Foul on Army, 15 yards | +5% AF +2.2 pts |
| Q2 7:12 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yards | +2% ARMY +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | Illegal Formation on Army, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% AF +1.4 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Illegal Formation on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARMY +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:24 | Roughing the Passer on Army, 15 yards | +6% AF +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:31 | Pass Interference on Army, 15 yards | +18% AF +2.9 pts |
When it happened
Air Force’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:19 | Personal Foul on Army, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% AF | AF: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 0:01 | R. Tubbs missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +7% ARMY | AF: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 7:37 | Army converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 6:24 | Roughing the Passer on Army, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% AF | AF: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 5:02 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% ARMY | AF: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 4:17 | Air Force converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +11% AF | AF: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 2:19 | Army was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +10% AF | ARMY: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:31 | Pass Interference on Army, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +18% AF | AF: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Army 92% · Air Force 8%
- Final margin
- Army by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 9.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Army 34% · Air Force 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Army · 
Air Force
More from Week 10 2025
- Navy at North Texas UNT 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- New Mexico at UNLV UNM 40–35 · replay 70% for the winner
- Hawai'i at San José State SJSU 45–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Tulane at UTSA UTSA 48–26 · replay 81% for the winner
- UAB at UConn CONN 38–19 · replay 93% for the winner
- Fresno State at Boise State FRES 30–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wyoming at San Diego State SDSU 24–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Memphis at Rice MEM 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- East Carolina at Temple ECU 45–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner