Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
East Carolina at Temple, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
East Carolina beat Temple 45–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, East Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 64% favorite.
Final
 East Carolina Pirates | 45 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 East Carolina about even · 0 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Carolina wins 10, Temple wins 0.
- 1 ECU 70 TEM 6
- 2 ECU 56 TEM 0
- 3 ECU 52 TEM 2
- 4 ECU 59 TEM 13
- 5 ECU 49 TEM 5
- 6 ECU 56 TEM 16
- 7 ECU 52 TEM 16
- 8 ECU 38 TEM 6
- 9 ECU 35 TEM 7
- 10 ECU 35 TEM 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Carolina wins 100% of them, Temple 0%. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Carolina by 17+ | 98.2% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Temple by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: East Carolina 5 for 44 yards, Temple 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:34 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ECU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yards | 0% TEM +2.3 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | Holding on East Carolina, 4 yards | 0% TEM +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:38 | Illegal Substitution on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:26 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:15 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:46 | East Carolina fumbled and Temple recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TEM | ECU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:34 | False Start on Temple, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:33 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 1:22 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% TEM | ECU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 8:54 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 3:49 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% ECU | TEM: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:08 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% TEM | ECU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:02 | East Carolina converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Carolina 100% · Temple 0%
- Final margin
- East Carolina by 31
- Luck in points
- 6.7 for East Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 24.3
- Replay with same day's form
- East Carolina 100% · Temple 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
East Carolina · 
Temple
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Navy at North Texas UNT 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at UTSA UTSA 48–26 · replay 81% for the winner
- UAB at UConn CONN 38–19 · replay 93% for the winner
- Memphis at Rice MEM 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner