Week 10 2025 · October 31, 2025
Memphis at Rice, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Memphis beat Rice 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Memphis was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 38 |
|---|---|
 Rice Owls | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Memphis about even · 0 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 10, Rice wins 0.
- 1 MEM 57 RICE 0
- 2 MEM 51 RICE 0
- 3 MEM 47 RICE 0
- 4 MEM 49 RICE 6
- 5 MEM 49 RICE 10
- 6 MEM 35 RICE 0
- 7 MEM 38 RICE 6
- 8 MEM 41 RICE 13
- 9 MEM 27 RICE 3
- 10 MEM 35 RICE 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 100% of them, Rice 0%. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 95.8% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Rice by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Memphis 5 for 36 yards, Rice 6 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:03 | Kick Catch Interference on Rice, 15 yards | +1% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q1 11:25 | Illegal Snap on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RICE +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:32 | Kick Catch Interference on Rice, 15 yards | 0% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:33 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:51 | Roughing the Passer on Rice, 13 yards | 0% MEM +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:47 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% RICE +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% RICE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:06 | Personal Foul on Rice, 15 yards | 0% MEM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:58 | Personal Foul on Rice, 15 yards | 0% MEM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:31 | Holding on Memphis, 1 yard | 0% RICE +3.7 pts |
| Q4 0:49 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Rice’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:38 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +2% MEM | RICE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:03 | Kick Catch Interference on Rice, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:25 | Illegal Snap on Memphis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% RICE | RICE: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 11:01 | Memphis converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:15 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% RICE | MEM: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:50 | Rice fumbled and Memphis recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% MEM | RICE: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:34 | Memphis converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +1% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 1:07 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% MEM | RICE: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 100% · Rice 0%
- Final margin
- Memphis by 24
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 19.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 100% · Rice 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Memphis · 
Rice
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Navy at North Texas UNT 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at UTSA UTSA 48–26 · replay 81% for the winner
- UAB at UConn CONN 38–19 · replay 93% for the winner
- East Carolina at Temple ECU 45–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner