Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
UAB at UConn, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
UConn beat UAB 38–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UConn wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff UConn was a 74% favorite.
Final
 UAB Blazers | 19 |
|---|---|
 UConn Huskies | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 UConn about even · −7 UAB
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UAB wins 1, UConn wins 9.
- 1 UAB 45 CONN 38
- 2 UAB 31 CONN 34
- 3 UAB 35 CONN 44
- 4 UAB 31 CONN 44
- 5 UAB 28 CONN 44
- 6 UAB 27 CONN 49
- 7 UAB 23 CONN 49
- 8 UAB 24 CONN 55
- 9 UAB 21 CONN 58
- 10 UAB 24 CONN 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UAB wins 7% of them, UConn 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UAB by 17+ | 0.9% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 4.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 15.5% |
| UConn by 17+ | 65.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: UAB 5 for 57 yards, UConn 6 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:13 | Illegal Substitution on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UAB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:42 | Pass Interference on UAB, 15 yards | +4% CONN +3.2 pts |
| Q2 8:44 | Personal Foul on UConn, 15 yards | 0% UAB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:55 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CONN +0.1 pts |
| Q3 9:50 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | 0% UAB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:56 | Personal Foul on UAB, 12 yards | 0% CONN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:07 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CONN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:47 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | 0% UAB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:28 | Personal Foul on UConn, 15 yards | 0% UAB +1.8 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UConn, 12 yards | 0% UAB +2.8 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UAB, 15 yards | 0% CONN +0.9 pts |
When it happened
UConn’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% UAB | CONN: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 9:23 | UConn was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedUAB converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% UAB | CONN: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 5:13 | UConn converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedUConn converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedIllegal Substitution on UConn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% UAB | CONN: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 14:42 | UConn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedPass Interference on UAB, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 10:40 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% UAB | CONN: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 8:44 | C. Freeman made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 3 of 8 from 45+ beforePersonal Foul on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CONN | CONN: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 3:56 | UConn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +1% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:09 | UAB’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% CONN | UAB: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UAB 1% · UConn 99%
- Final margin
- UConn by 19
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for UConn
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UConn by 13.1
- Replay with same day's form
- UAB 7% · UConn 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
UAB · 
UConn
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Navy at North Texas UNT 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at UTSA UTSA 48–26 · replay 81% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Boston College ND 25–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Memphis at Rice MEM 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- East Carolina at Temple ECU 45–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner