American · 2026 season, in progress
UAB Blazers: luck and expected wins
UAB is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 25th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–1.
2026, game by game
How often UAB wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Illinois | L 23–42 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 2 | vs UL Monroe | W 26–20 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 3 | @ Louisiana | L 14–21 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 4 | vs Navy | W 24–20 | 32% | +68 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | UAB win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Samford |  UAB by 25.0 | 94% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Memphis |  Memphis by 15.8 | 16% |
| Week 7 · Oct 15 | vs East Carolina |  East Carolina by 6.0 | 36% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at South Florida |  South Florida by 19.7 | 12% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Charlotte | UAB by 14.0 | 80% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Temple |  Temple by 10.0 | 28% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs UTSA |  UTSA by 11.3 | 25% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at North Texas |  North Texas by 21.5 | 10% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UAB’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.16 | +4.7 |
| Kicks | −0.07 | +2.0 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.10 | −2.6 |
Luckiest wins
Wins UAB takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Navy | W 24–20 | 32% | +68 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Tulsa | W 31–24 | 33% | +67 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Memphis | W 31–24 | 64% | +36 |
| 2025 Week 3 | vs Akron | W 31–28 | 69% | +31 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs UL Monroe | W 26–20 | 81% | +19 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses UAB would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Rice | L 17–24 | 65% | −65 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Army | L 13–31 | 49% | −49 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Louisiana | L 14–21 | 26% | −26 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Navy | L 24–38 | 21% | −21 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs North Texas | L 24–53 | 8% | −8 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4–8 | 4.1 | −0.1 | 3–1 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Alabama State | W 52–42 | 89% | +12 |
| Week 2 | @ Navy | L 24–38 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | vs Akron | W 31–28 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 4 | @ Tennessee | L 24–56 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 6 | vs Army | L 13–31 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 7 | @ Florida Atlantic | L 33–53 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 8 | vs Memphis | W 31–24 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 10 | @ UConn | L 19–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 11 | @ Rice | L 17–24 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 12 | vs North Texas | L 24–53 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 13 | vs South Florida | L 18–48 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 14 | @ Tulsa | W 31–24 | 33% | +67 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- American teams by luck
- American:
Army, 
Charlotte, East Carolina, 
Florida Atlantic, Memphis, 
Navy, North Texas, 
Rice, South Florida, Temple, 
Tulane, 
Tulsa, UTSA
How many wins does UAB have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.4 wins.
Was UAB lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.6 wins of luck, the 25th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was UAB’s luckiest season?
2026: 2–2 from play worth 1.4 wins, +0.6 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 4–8 from play worth 4.1 (−0.1).