luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

South Florida at UAB, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat UAB 48–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 92% favorite.

Final

South Florida Bulls 48
UAB Blazers 18

November 22, 2025 · Protective Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −21.5

Luck index +5 South Florida about even · −5 UAB

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Florida wins 9, UAB wins 1.

  1. 1 USF 70 UAB 24
  2. 2 USF 47 UAB 9
  3. 3 USF 46 UAB 13
  4. 4 USF 41 UAB 13
  5. 5 USF 52 UAB 27
  6. 6 USF 45 UAB 24
  7. 7 USF 20 UAB 3
  8. 8 USF 49 UAB 38
  9. 9 USF 30 UAB 26
  10. 10 USF 17 UAB 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Florida wins 95% of them, UAB 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Florida by 17+72.0%
South Florida by 9–1613.0%
South Florida by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
UAB by 1–83.2%
UAB by 9–161.0%
UAB by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to South Florida: the final margin was South Florida by 30, without the luck South Florida by 26.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Delange, 30 yds made · 88% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 49 yds made · 58% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 43 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Florida 12 for 99 yards, UAB 10 for 94 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:51 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UAB +1.6 pts
Q1 13:34 Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards +1% UAB +0.8 pts
Q1 11:36 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.3 pts
Q1 4:37 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +1.9 pts
Q1 2:07 Targeting on South Florida, 15 yards +2% UAB +1.6 pts
Q1 2:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 10 yards +1% UAB +0.4 pts
Q2 9:03 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.5 pts
Q2 9:03 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.5 pts
Q2 9:03 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.5 pts
Q2 8:50 Holding on South Florida, 4 yards 0% UAB +0.2 pts
Q2 1:41 Intentional Grounding on South Florida, 0 yards 0% UAB 0.0 pts
Q2 0:51 Ineligible Downfield on UAB, 5 yards +1% USF +0.6 pts
Q2 0:36 Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards +1% UAB +1.0 pts
Q2 0:16 Personal Foul on UAB, 15 yards +1% USF +0.8 pts
Q3 10:09 Holding on UAB, 10 yards 0% USF +0.6 pts
Q3 9:38 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.4 pts
Q3 4:06 Pass Interference on UAB, 14 yards 0% USF +1.6 pts
Q3 3:10 Kick Catch Interference on UAB, 15 yards 0% USF +0.9 pts
Q3 1:23 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards 0% UAB +0.2 pts
Q4 4:10 Pass Interference on UAB, 15 yards 0% USF +0.8 pts
Q4 3:58 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.4 pts
Q4 3:57 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.4 pts

When it happened

UAB’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UAB was ahead in it, below while South Florida was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:51 Offside on South Florida, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% UAB UAB: Turnover
2 Q1 10:05 UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +1% UAB UAB: Field goal
3 Q1 4:37 False Start on UAB, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% USF USF: Punt
4 Q1 2:07 Targeting on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% UAB UAB: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:48 UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% UAB UAB: Punt
6 Q2 10:24 UAB converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% UAB UAB: Punt
7 Q2 9:03 False Start on UAB, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on UAB, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on UAB, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% USF USF: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:13 N. Gramatica made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 7 of 12 from 45+ before +1% USF USF: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Florida 100% · UAB 0%

Final margin
South Florida by 30
Luck in points
3.2 for South Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 26.8
Replay with same day's form
South Florida 95% · UAB 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · South Florida · UAB

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