luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

UConn at Florida Atlantic, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

UConn beat Florida Atlantic 48–45, but the replays lean toward Florida Atlantic: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to UConn.

UConn won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida Atlantic it would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers

Before kickoff UConn was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): Face Mask on UConn, 15 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to Florida Atlantic.

Final

UConn Huskies 48
Florida Atlantic Owls 45

November 22, 2025 · FAU Stadium · Closing line: UConn −6

Luck index +75 UConn very lucky · −75 Florida Atlantic

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UConn wins 3, Florida Atlantic wins 7.

  1. 1 CONN 48 FAU 27
  2. 2 CONN 35 FAU 25
  3. 3 CONN 34 FAU 31
  4. 4 CONN 28 FAU 31
  5. 5 CONN 35 FAU 42
  6. 6 CONN 38 FAU 48
  7. 7 CONN 31 FAU 45
  8. 8 CONN 17 FAU 35
  9. 9 CONN 14 FAU 37
  10. 10 CONN 10 FAU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

UConn won on an off day

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida Atlantic it would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.

39 points apart for UConn: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
UConn offenseEPA per play gained +0.40 +0.13 better by 0.27
UConn defenseEPA per play allowed +0.38 +0.01 worse by 0.37
Florida Atlantic offenseEPA per play gained +0.38 +0.05 better by 0.34
Florida Atlantic defenseEPA per play allowed +0.40 +0.10 worse by 0.30

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

UConn wins 25% of them, Florida Atlantic 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UConn by 17+4.6%
UConn by 9–166.8%
UConn by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Florida Atlantic by 1–822.6%
Florida Atlantic by 9–1618.0%
Florida Atlantic by 17+34.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to UConn: the final margin was UConn by 3, without the luck UConn by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Freeman, 39 yds made · 77% expected
  • G. Smith, 49 yds made · 57% expected
  • C. Freeman, 25 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Smith, 36 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UConn 10 for 105 yards, Florida Atlantic 7 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:38 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CONN +0.8 pts
Q1 7:57 Face Mask on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards +3% CONN +1.6 pts
Q1 2:38 Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CONN +2.7 pts
Q2 12:58 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FAU +0.6 pts
Q2 7:57 Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards +2% CONN +1.6 pts
Q2 3:11 Illegal Substitution on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FAU +0.5 pts
Q2 3:04 Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards +3% CONN +1.6 pts
Q2 0:46 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.1 pts
Q2 0:17 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UConn, 15 yards +1% FAU +0.5 pts
Q3 14:07 Personal Foul on UConn, 15 yards +3% FAU +1.6 pts
Q3 12:29 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards +8% FAU +4.0 pts
Q3 7:43 False Start on Florida Atlantic, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% CONN +0.5 pts
Q3 2:53 Holding on UConn, 10 yards +3% FAU +0.9 pts
Q4 12:40 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% FAU +2.3 pts
Q4 10:44 False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% FAU +0.8 pts
Q4 7:05 Holding on UConn, 10 yards +2% FAU +0.6 pts
Q4 0:22 Face Mask on UConn, 15 yards +18% FAU +0.9 pts

When it happened

Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida Atlantic was ahead in it, below while UConn was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:29 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% FAU FAU: Touchdown
2 Q3 0:36 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% FAU FAU: Turnover
3 Q4 13:43 Florida Atlantic fumbled and UConn recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CONN FAU: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:40 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% FAU FAU: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:13 Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% FAU FAU: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:02 UConn converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +8% CONN CONN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:46 UConn converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% CONN CONN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:22 Face Mask on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment calls +18% FAU FAU: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UConn 56% · Florida Atlantic 44%

Final margin
UConn by 3
Luck in points
2.2 for UConn
Luck-adjusted margin
UConn by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
UConn 25% · Florida Atlantic 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · UConn · Florida Atlantic

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