Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Charlotte at Georgia, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Charlotte 35–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 3 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Georgia about even · 0 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 0, Georgia wins 10.
- 1 CLT 0 UGA 21
- 2 CLT 19 UGA 49
- 3 CLT 3 UGA 38
- 4 CLT 10 UGA 48
- 5 CLT 7 UGA 48
- 6 CLT 0 UGA 45
- 7 CLT 10 UGA 59
- 8 CLT 0 UGA 52
- 9 CLT 3 UGA 59
- 10 CLT 0 UGA 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 0% of them, Georgia 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 97.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Charlotte 4 for 20 yards, Georgia 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:26 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | 0% CLT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:55 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:06 | Illegal Snap on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +2.7 pts |
| Q4 14:32 | Illegal Substitution on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:34 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:11 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% CLT | UGA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:26 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% UGA | CLT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:03 | Georgia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:28 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% UGA | CLT: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:59 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% CLT | UGA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:25 | Georgia converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +0% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:56 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% UGA | CLT: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 9:47 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% CLT | CLT: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 0% · Georgia 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 32
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 28.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 0% · Georgia 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Charlotte · 
Georgia
More from Week 13 2025
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Missouri at Oklahoma OU 17–6 · replay 46% for the winner
- Tulsa at Army TLSA 26–25 · replay 55% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Florida TENN 31–11 · replay 88% for the winner
- Tulane at Temple TULN 37–13 · replay 93% for the winner
- Arkansas at Texas TEX 52–37 · replay 94% for the winner
- South Florida at UAB USF 48–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- Mercer at Auburn AUB 62–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kentucky at Vanderbilt VAN 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- East Carolina at UTSA UTSA 58–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- North Texas at Rice UNT 56–24 · replay 100% for the winner