luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Western Kentucky at LSU, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

LSU beat Western Kentucky 13–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff LSU was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): Return touchdown by Western Kentucky, worth 20 points of win probability to Western Kentucky.

Final

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 10
LSU Tigers 13

November 22, 2025 · Tiger Stadium (LA) · Closing line: LSU −24.5

Luck index +25 LSU lucky · −25 Western Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 3, LSU wins 7.

  1. 1 WKU 28 LSU 10
  2. 2 WKU 20 LSU 10
  3. 3 WKU 6 LSU 3
  4. 4 WKU 14 LSU 16
  5. 5 WKU 3 LSU 7
  6. 6 WKU 7 LSU 16
  7. 7 WKU 12 LSU 24
  8. 8 WKU 7 LSU 23
  9. 9 WKU 3 LSU 23
  10. 10 WKU 0 LSU 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Western Kentucky wins 25% of them, LSU 75%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Western Kentucky by 17+2.4%
Western Kentucky by 9–167.2%
Western Kentucky by 1–813.7%
Level after regulation4.6%
LSU by 1–825.0%
LSU by 9–1621.5%
LSU by 17+25.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to Western Kentucky: the final margin was LSU by 3, without the luck LSU by 8.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Cannon, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • D. Ramos, 18 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Ramos, 29 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Western Kentucky 4 for 26 yards, LSU 9 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:45 Pass Interference on LSU, 9 yards +1% WKU +0.9 pts
Q1 7:46 Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LSU +1.5 pts
Q1 4:24 Offside on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WKU +1.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards +2% WKU +1.8 pts
Q2 13:41 Holding on LSU, 10 yards +1% WKU +0.4 pts
Q2 6:34 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.6 pts
Q2 4:01 Offside on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:41 Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 14 yards +1% LSU +0.5 pts
Q3 14:22 Illegal Formation on LSU, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% WKU +1.7 pts
Q3 4:54 Holding on LSU, 10 yards +1% WKU +1.0 pts
Q3 3:19 Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +0.5 pts
Q3 1:45 False Start on Western Kentucky, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +0.3 pts
Q4 11:24 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WKU +0.6 pts

When it happened

LSU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while LSU was ahead in it, below while Western Kentucky was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:16 Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% WKU WKU: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 11:30 Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% WKU WKU: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 10:05 Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% LSU WKU: End of half
4 Q2 5:45 LSU was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% WKU LSU: End of half
5 Q2 5:00 Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% WKU WKU: End of half
6 Q2 3:09 Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% LSU WKU: Punt
7 Q2 2:34 LSU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% LSU LSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:05 LSU fumbled and Western Kentucky recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Western KentuckySpecial teams +20% WKU LSU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Western Kentucky 12% · LSU 88%

Final margin
LSU by 3
Luck in points
5.1 for Western Kentucky
Luck-adjusted margin
LSU by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Western Kentucky 25% · LSU 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Western Kentucky · LSU

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