Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Liberty at Louisiana Tech, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat Liberty 34–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Louisiana Tech wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:05 left): Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 7, worth 11 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Final (OT)
 Liberty Flames | 28 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Louisiana Tech lucky · −55 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 6, Louisiana Tech wins 4.
- 1 LIB 41 LT 14
- 2 LIB 38 LT 19
- 3 LIB 30 LT 16
- 4 LIB 27 LT 17
- 5 LIB 34 LT 28
- 6 LIB 24 LT 21
- 7 LIB 42 LT 44
- 8 LIB 31 LT 37
- 9 LIB 24 LT 37
- 10 LIB 27 LT 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 55% of them, Louisiana Tech 45%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 17.9% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 15.9% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 10.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Billingsley, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- J. Billingsley, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- D. Henderson, 47 yds missed · 58% expected
- J. Hoyet Chance, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
Penalties: Liberty 6 for 70 yards, Louisiana Tech 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:49 | Face Mask on Liberty, 15 yards | +4% LT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:55 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +2% LIB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:38 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LIB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:39 | Kick Catch Interference on Liberty, 15 yards | +2% LT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:01 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LIB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:20 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +6% LIB +3.0 pts |
| Q3 9:14 | Illegal Use of Hands on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +1% LIB +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Liberty, 15 yards | +1% LT +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on Liberty, 10 yards | +1% LT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:24 | Illegal Block on Liberty, 10 yards | 0% LT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 1:20 | Illegal Substitution on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LT +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:05 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:54 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% LT | LIB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:49 | Face Mask on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% LT | LT: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 4:01 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:00 | D. Henderson missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 1 of 4 from 45+ before | +7% LIB | LT: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 13:20 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 11:10 | Louisiana Tech converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 7:05 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +11% LT | LT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 34% · Louisiana Tech 66%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 6
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Louisiana Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 55% · Louisiana Tech 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Liberty · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Florida International FIU 27–21 · replay 42% for the winner
- New Mexico State at UTEP NMSU 34–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee MTSU 31–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner