Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
New Mexico State at UTEP, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico State beat UTEP 34–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, New Mexico State wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff UTEP was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): UTEP fumbled and recovered it, worth 24 points of win probability to UTEP.
Final
 New Mexico State Aggies | 34 |
|---|---|
 UTEP Miners | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 New Mexico State lucky · −47 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 5, UTEP wins 5.
- 1 NMSU 27 UTEP 0
- 2 NMSU 27 UTEP 10
- 3 NMSU 27 UTEP 16
- 4 NMSU 27 UTEP 20
- 5 NMSU 24 UTEP 21
- 6 NMSU 17 UTEP 19
- 7 NMSU 38 UTEP 44
- 8 NMSU 17 UTEP 26
- 9 NMSU 14 UTEP 27
- 10 NMSU 13 UTEP 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico State wins 53% of them, UTEP 47%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 18.0% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| UTEP by 17+ | 11.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Barker, 46 yds made · 61% expected
- T. Cragun, 22 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Barker, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: New Mexico State 6 for 51 yards, UTEP 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:57 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% UTEP +1.9 pts |
| Q1 11:20 | Kick Catch Interference on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +2% UTEP +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:35 | Horse Collar Tackle on New Mexico State, 1 yard | +1% UTEP +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:38 | Roughing the Passer on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% NMSU +6.6 pts |
| Q3 13:51 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 15 yards | +3% NMSU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% UTEP +1.8 pts |
| Q4 12:57 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:02 | Face Mask on UTEP, 10 yards | +6% NMSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:40 | Face Mask on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +3% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:22 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NMSU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
UTEP’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:58 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +7% UTEP | NMSU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 8:38 | New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedRoughing the Passer on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 9:47 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% NMSU | NMSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 4:09 | UTEP converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% UTEP | UTEP: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 2:42 | UTEP converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +12% UTEP | UTEP: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:12 | New Mexico State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:08 | UTEP converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +18% UTEP | UTEP: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedUTEP fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +24% UTEP | UTEP: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico State 60% · UTEP 40%
- Final margin
- New Mexico State by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico State by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico State 53% · UTEP 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
New Mexico State · 
UTEP
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Florida International FIU 27–21 · replay 42% for the winner
- Liberty at Louisiana Tech LT 34–28 · replay 45% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee MTSU 31–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner