Delaware at Wake Forest, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Delaware Blue Hens	14
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	52

November 22, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Wake Forest −17.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index 0 Wake Forest about even · 0 Delaware

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Delaware wins 0, Wake Forest wins 10.

1 DEL 21 WAKE 35
2 DEL 19 WAKE 42
3 DEL 16 WAKE 44
4 DEL 23 WAKE 56
5 DEL 6 WAKE 42
6 DEL 14 WAKE 54
7 DEL 3 WAKE 45
8 DEL 17 WAKE 63
9 DEL 13 WAKE 63
10 DEL 0 WAKE 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Delaware wins 0% of them, Wake Forest 100%. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 38.

Actual: Wake Forest by 38 494235282114707142128354249 ← Delaware win by Wake Forest win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Delaware by 17+	0.0%
Delaware by 9–16	0.1%
Delaware by 1–8	0.2%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Wake Forest by 1–8	0.8%
Wake Forest by 9–16	2.7%
Wake Forest by 17+	96.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +1% DEL

All luck +1% DEL

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to Wake Forest: the final margin was Wake Forest by 38, without the luck Wake Forest by 29.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

C. Calvert, 44 yds made · 65% expected
C. Calvert, 44 yds made · 65% expected
C. Calvert, 47 yds made · 60% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Delaware 3 for 25 yards, Wake Forest 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q2 15:00	Illegal Formation on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% WAKE +0.8 pts
Q2 8:08	Roughing the Kicker on Wake Forest, 15 yards	+2% DEL +3.0 pts
Q2 4:34	Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards	0% DEL +1.7 pts
Q3 15:00	Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards	0% DEL +1.5 pts
Q3 15:00	Offside on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% DEL +0.1 pts
Q3 10:08	Face Mask on Delaware, 15 yards	0% WAKE +1.8 pts

When it happened

Wake Forest’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Wake Forest 50% Delaware Q1Q2Q3Q4 1234567

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wake Forest was ahead in it, below while Delaware was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 15:00	Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected	+1% WAKE	DEL: Punt
2	Q1 13:06	Wake Forest converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedWake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedWake Forest converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedWake Forest converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected	+3% DEL	WAKE: End of half
3	Q2 15:00	Delaware converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedIllegal Formation on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+1% DEL	DEL: Touchdown
4	Q2 12:47	Wake Forest converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedWake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+1% WAKE	WAKE: Field goal
5	Q2 9:40	Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedC. Calvert made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him	+1% DEL	DEL: Punt
6	Q2 8:08	Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedRoughing the Kicker on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+1% DEL	DEL: Punt
7	Q2 4:39	Wake Forest converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected	+1% WAKE	WAKE: Field goal
8	Q2 4:34	Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHolding on Wake Forest, 10 yardsJudgment calls	+1% DEL	WAKE: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Delaware · Wake Forest

More from Week 13 2025

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Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
Jacksonville State at Florida International FIU 27–21 · replay 42% for the winner
Liberty at Louisiana Tech LT 34–28 · replay 45% for the winner
New Mexico State at UTEP NMSU 34–31 · replay 53% for the winner
Miami at Virginia Tech MIA 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech PITT 42–28 · replay 80% for the winner
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