Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat Georgia Tech 42–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:55 left): Return touchdown by Pittsburgh, worth 17 points of win probability to Pittsburgh.
Final
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 42 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Pittsburgh about even · −20 Georgia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Pittsburgh wins 8, Georgia Tech wins 2.
- 1 PITT 49 GT 13
- 2 PITT 38 GT 10
- 3 PITT 48 GT 26
- 4 PITT 35 GT 17
- 5 PITT 21 GT 7
- 6 PITT 38 GT 28
- 7 PITT 16 GT 10
- 8 PITT 28 GT 25
- 9 PITT 14 GT 17
- 10 PITT 14 GT 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Pittsburgh wins 80% of them, Georgia Tech 20%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 42.4% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 5.3% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Pittsburgh 6 for 74 yards, Georgia Tech 8 for 66 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Block on Georgia Tech, 12 yards | +1% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:40 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PITT +1.5 pts |
| Q1 7:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +2% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:25 | Ineligible Downfield on Pittsburgh, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GT +2.4 pts |
| Q1 0:01 | Illegal Substitution on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +2% GT +3.9 pts |
| Q2 4:37 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 14 yards | +1% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | Intentional Grounding on Pittsburgh, 14 yards | +1% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:09 | Face Mask on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +2% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:48 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:37 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:34 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:22 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | 0% PITT +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:48 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% PITT | GT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:48 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +4% PITT | GT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 5:44 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% PITT | GT: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 4:02 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:25 | Ineligible Downfield on Pittsburgh, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% GT | GT: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 5:55 | Return touchdown by PittsburghSpecial teams | +17% PITT | PITT: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 4:51 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% GT | GT: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 3:23 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Pittsburgh 85% · Georgia Tech 15%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 14
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Pittsburgh
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Pittsburgh by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Pittsburgh 80% · Georgia Tech 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Pittsburgh · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 13 2025
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Miami at Virginia Tech MIA 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
- Louisville at SMU SMU 38–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- California at Stanford STAN 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Furman at Clemson CLEM 45–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Syracuse at Notre Dame ND 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner