Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Marshall at App State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
App State beat Marshall 26–24, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Marshall wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to App State.
App State won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Marshall it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff Marshall was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:09 left): L. Quinn had a 28-yard field goal blocked, worth 13 points of win probability to App State.
Final
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 24 |
|---|---|
 App State Mountaineers | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 App State very lucky · −87 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 9, App State wins 1.
- 1 MRSH 44 APP 3
- 2 MRSH 45 APP 12
- 3 MRSH 35 APP 7
- 4 MRSH 37 APP 14
- 5 MRSH 35 APP 16
- 6 MRSH 26 APP 10
- 7 MRSH 23 APP 10
- 8 MRSH 31 APP 24
- 9 MRSH 20 APP 17
- 10 MRSH 24 APP 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
App State won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Marshall it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for App State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.07 | better by 0.12 |
| Marshall defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.08 | better by 0.08 |
| App State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.00 | +0.10 | worse by 0.10 |
| App State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.14 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 87% of them, App State 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: App State by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 52.3% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| App State by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| App State by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| App State by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. De Freitas, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- L. Quinn, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- L. Quinn, 28 yds blocked · 90% expected
- D. De Freitas, 23 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Marshall 6 for 60 yards, App State 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:18 | Chop Block on Marshall, 15 yards | +3% APP +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:04 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% APP +2.6 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on App State, 15 yards | +2% MRSH +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:24 | Face Mask on App State, 15 yards | +2% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:08 | Illegal Formation on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:52 | Face Mask on Marshall, 15 yards | +5% APP +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:55 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% APP +1.2 pts |
| Q3 2:32 | Roughing the Passer on App State, 15 yards | +2% MRSH +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:25 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% APP +3.1 pts |
When it happened
App State’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:50 | App State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +8% MRSH | APP: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 3:40 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +7% MRSH | APP: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:25 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% APP | APP: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 14:09 | L. Quinn had a 28-yard field goal blockedKicks · 90% expected for him | +13% APP | MRSH: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:59 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +7% MRSH | APP: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:33 | Marshall fumbled and App State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% APP | MRSH: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 4:32 | App State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +12% APP | APP: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:55 | Marshall fumbled and App State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% APP | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 42% · App State 58%
- Final margin
- App State by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for App State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- App State by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 87% · App State 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Marshall · 
App State
More from Week 13 2025
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Georgia State at Troy TROY 31–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Southern Miss at South Alabama USA 42–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Texas State TXST 31–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington State at James Madison JMU 24–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ODU 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner